Determining drivers for wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) distribution in the Masai Mara National Reserve and surrounding group ranches

A current assessment of wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) distribution throughout the Masai Mara National Reserve (MMNR) and adjoining group ranches has not been investigated for over 15 years. This information is greatly needed to protect populations of wildebeest and their ranges. MaxEnt, a statistical model, was used to evaluate influential factors for wildebeest distribution and predict suitable habitats throughout the northern extent of the Serengeti National Park, the MMNR, and adjoining group ranches. There were thirty five abiotic and biotic variables used to create two distribution models in MaxEnt across the study area for two different time periods. Both models performed well with training AUCs >0.80. Precipitation seasonality, isothermality, and distances to lodges were the greatest contributing variables to wildebeest distribution in the November model. Kauth-Thomas wetness, annual temperature range, and distances to camps were significant factors for wildebeest distribution in the June model. Predictive maps from the June 2010 model revealed higher concentrations of predicted habitat suitability in areas historically impacted by the expansion of mechanized farming practices. It is recommended that the MMNR collaborate with local group ranch conservancies to secure seasonal dispersal sites for wildebeest and impose land use policies in unprotected areas. Results from MaxEnt also revealed that bioclimatic variables and soil and plant moisture are significant contributors to wildebeest distributions. The MMNR should evaluate the potential effects imposed by climate change to wildebeest distributions and populations.