Economic Models for Conservation Planning and Policy: Exploring Wetland Conversion and Values in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

It has been acknowledged that conservation planners miss out on great opportunities to achieve more efficient objectives when not integrating rigorous economic analysis in their modeling. This thesis presents economic modeling and research methods that not only provide critical information for conservation planning, but also for conservation policy analysis.;Using the Delta Agricultural Production (DAP) model, I simulate a spatially differentiated greenhouse gas offset market for wetlands on agricultural lands in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California, United States. I also derive a Delta wetland pseudo-supply function based on payments in addition to the simulated offset market. The DAP is a regional agricultural production and economic optimization model that simulates farmers' decisions based on actual observations in the Delta. Results reveal that current greenhouse gas offset prices are not high enough to incentivize farmers to convert any current crop acreage into wetlands, but additional payments will induce this conversion. These results can be used to identify the quantity, location, and costs of potential wetlands on agricultural landscapes in the Delta.;In this thesis I also quantify the values of ecosystem services that Delta wetlands provide through nutrients reduction and recreation opportunities, by drawing on estimates from the published literature. The avoided treatment costs estimate of reducing nitrogen and phosphorus is ;My methods show that economic modeling and valuation techniques can play a vital and powerful role in informing conservation planning and policy decision-making. In addition, this thesis presents a transferable example that can be applied to other conservation habitat types and geographic locations using other economic modeling tools.