Research On Multi-airport Passenger Throughput Demand Forecasting Based On Competition

With the continuous improvement of global urbanization level and the improvement of urban transportation network,the airport cluster has gradually stepped into the perspective of globalization.The emergence of regional multi-airport systems has brought difficulties to the accurate prediction of airport passenger throughput.Especially in recent years,the rapid development of high-speed railways and the competition with air transportation in the space market have further increased the complexity of airport passenger throughput prediction.It can be seen from this that airport passenger throughput is no longer a product of a single indicator,but a product of a complex system.How to accurately predict it has become a new problem.Firstly,this paper discusses the current development status of railway and civil aviation,regional multi-airport system and the research progress of domestic and foreign scholars in the prediction of airport passenger throughput demand.Secondly,it analyzes the characteristics of passenger travel decision-making behavior and considers it to be in line with the utility theory;then,based on the existing theoretical research results,it introduces the characteristics of common prediction methods of airport passenger throughput and various related factors that affect the formation of airport passenger throughput,and selects the nested logit model as the prediction tool according to the passenger travel decision-making mechanism.Considering the importance of competition factors in improving the accuracy of the model prediction,this paper builds a Nested Logit model based on the competition for the prediction of airport passenger throughput demand,and introduces the competition between civil aviation and railways,as well as the competition between airports in the same industry in the region into the model in order to improve the accuracy and credibility of the prediction results,it is expected to provide new directions for the prediction of airport passenger throughput.Then,design a questionnaire to conduct on-the-spot investigation,analyze the characteristics of passenger travel behavior,organize the questionnaire data into corresponding forms and use transcad software calibration utility function to predict passenger throughput.Finally,on the basis of theoretical research,this paper also combined the actual prediction of the passenger throughput of Shenzhen Baoan Airport in the Pearl River Delta Airport Group,further verifying the feasibility of the Nested Logit model in passenger airport selection behavior.The Nested Logit model is mostly used in the decision-making of urban traffic travel methods.This article applies it to the research of airport passenger throughput prediction.Based on the model prediction results,it can not only get the passenger throughput of the target airport,but also predict the area.Passenger travel directions and throughput data of other airports are conducive to future exchanges and cooperation and development planning between airports in the region,and also help airport managers adjust management models in time for problems reflected by big data.