A Study On The Relationship Between Climate Change And Population Migration

In the context of global warming,it is meaningful to understand the relationship between climate change and population migration.Climate change will affect agricultural productivity,which will change the income of agricultural production in the major grain-producing areas,and then promote the people in the main grain-producing areas to migrate outward,and finally change the distribution pattern of the labor force in each region.Using meteorological data from2474 national-level earth stations in China and net migration data from 291 prefecture-level cities,this paper focuses on analyzing the different impacts of climate change on population migration in major grain producing areas and non-major grain producing areas and the transmission mechanism behind them.In this paper,we first construct three theoretical models of population migration.The first model proves that the main factors affecting population migration are economic factors,and assume that climate factors will affect economic factors.That is,indirectly prove that climate factors have an important impact on population migration;The second model proves from the microscopic perspective that when the temperature rises,the population migration rate of the main grain producing areas will increase;The third model proves from a macro point of view that rising temperatures lead to the migration of agricultural labor from major grain producing areas to non-major grain producing areas,which increases the outflow of population from China's major grain producing areas and the inflow of population from non-major grain producing areas.Thus,the net population of the main grain producing areas in China will be made.The rate of migration declined and the net migration rate of the population in non-food-producing areas increased.After that,we use the panel data of the annual net migration rate and climate change of 291 prefecture-level cities in China from 1990 to 2014,and use the two-way fixed effect model to study the impact of climate change on the urban net migration rate.The empirical study shows that the increase of air temperature has a significant negative effect on the net migration rate of urban population in the major grain producing areas,and a significant positive effect on the net migration rate of the urban population in the non-major grain producing areas.In addition,for both the major and non-food producing areas,the net migration rate of urban population to rainfall and sunshine time is less than 10%.There is asignificant influence.Finally,further testing its transmission mechanism,the study found that the temperature rise will reduce the agricultural productivity in the main grain production areas,and reduce the average grain output of the agricultural labor force in the region.Thus,the agricultural labor force in the main grain producing areas will be transferred to non-grain producing areas.The research in this paper provides a new perspective for understanding population migration in China and formulating relevant policies to deal with climate change and population migration.