| Recently decades, under the common influence of natural conditions change and human social activities, global climate is experiencing a significant change of climate warming as the main characteristic. The issues of Climate changing are related to the economic development of human society and the structure and quantity of global energy utilization, which was a serious issue affecting the global development in21st century. Global warming now affects and will continue affecting the natural ecological system and the social economy of the world’s and China’s.Climate change and its impact are multi-scale, all-round, multi-level, positive and negative effects, but negative impact was concerned more. Climate change adverse influence on China’s relatively serious,"the China national plan to respond to climate change "(2008), noted that the influence of climate change to the of China’s national economy is mainly negative affection, which will make China’s food production face three outstanding problems in the future:firstly, climate change will led to the increase of instability of food output, unless taking adaptation measures, the output of wheat, rice and maize will decrease, secondly, the layout and the structure of food production will change and the cropping systems and the crop varieties will change; Finally, the agricultural conditions will change and the agriculture cost and the investment demand will increase dramatically. Therefore, it’s an extremely vital significance to strengthen the climate change related field, discusses the climate change on food production in China, analyzes the mitigation and adaptation strategies of influence of climate change, guarantee the security of our country’s food and increase farmers’income, maintain social stability.Climate change impact assessment has become the most attention international academic research area, and the analysis of climate change effects on food production and agricultural climate change adaptation are becoming an urgent problem to be solved. At present, research about the effects of climate change mainly confined to natural science area, generally don’t involve social and economic factors. Food production are not only affected by climate factors, but also affected by various social economic factors. Climate change impact on food production also needs to be studied as meteorology and economics interdisciplinary. During the current research of climate change, natural science was not yet introduced to the theory and method of economics and the meteorological cross area of research progress is slow through the research of economics of climate change which was lack of support.This paper overview the issues of global climate change, summarizes the trends and characteristics of climate change, analyze the change conditions and development trend of national and regional temperature and precipitation and agricultural meteorological disaster, summarize climate change effects of food production in China from two aspects of the advantage and disadvantage. In the empirical analysis, take rice as an example, construct the new model of economic climate through adding climate factor into the c-d production function, and analyze empirically the influence of climate change to the rice yield in different areas in China and regional difference. Analyze and calculation the losses number of agricultural meteorological disasters; Calculate and simulate the change of temperature and precipitation of Chinese provinces in2020on B2emission scenarios using the IPCC AR4data, construct respectively two kinds of simulation program:the impact of climate change simulation program and climate change adaptation simulation program. Simulate and analyze food production in each region under five different scenarios of two kinds of simulation schemes through the Chinese agriculture policy analysis model. Analyze the grain planting area and yield changes and planting structure changes under different scenarios in each region; analyze the influence of different scenarios to food security in the future. Based on the above conclusions, put forward the counter measures from aspect of adaptation to climate change in food production. The conclusions of full text mainly are as follows:(1) Nearly fifty years, the annual average temperature of north China, northeast China, and east China are presenting a rising trend. The temperature rises the most obviously after the1990s. However, the temperature of the southwest region changes not obviously, which shows a trend of temperature rising. From the trend of perspective, the average annual precipitation of nationwide, northeastern, eastern, southern and southwestern changes not obviously, but the average annual rainfall in north China has certain down trend from1960s to1980s, but it remained stable after the1980s. Nearly thirty years, it did not obviously change of the drought conditions in our country; however it appeared a significant deterioration of flood; droughts and floods in north China are relatively stable; drought in northeast region’s appeared significant deterioration, but the flood is obviously presented a better situation; the situation of eastern, southern and southwestern are similar, drought is obviously presented a better situation, but the flood appeared significant deterioration; droughts and floods in northwest area have shown significant deterioration.(2) Temperature rise has significantly negative influence on our regional rice yield, outside the northeast. Temperature rise influent the rice yield has significant regional differences, the maximum impact to the northwest, followed by the south, again is the east and north, southwest of China is affected the minimum. The difference between various regions to some extent, reflects regions in adapt to climate change capacity differences excepting different from regional natural environment and agricultural production conditions. The influence to China’s rice yield of precipitation of the average annual rainfall is not obviously, which has a direct relationship with the change of average annual rainfall. The average annual rainfall of different areas are relatively in basic stability in a long period, it has very big difference from the significant change trend of temperature; The rice sowing area, agricultural labor and chemical fertilizer have a positive influence on food production, the rice sowing area affects it the most, China’s rice production depends on the resources of cultivated land to a great extent; Most areas of agricultural machinery input on the rice yield has a positive impact on the nationwide. But the nationwide and south area will have negative influence on it, its elasticity coefficient are smaller. Technical progreЁf has significantly positive effects on China’s rice output; accelerating technological progress is the main measures to mitigate the impact of climate change.(3) Agrometeorological hazards cause tremendous reduction in grain output every year. The annual mean grain loss of the nation reaches2,062,8000tons, and the percentage of the annual mean reduction in grain output accounts for4.7%. Reduction is relatively severer in North China, Northeast, and Northwest. Grain loss caused by agrometeorological hazards is on the trend of deterioration as the growth rate of grain loss in several regions has exceeded that of grain output. The percent of the reducing of grain output caused by disaster is increasing day and day. Quite part of grain output growth has been offset by the grain loss caused by meteorological disasters. Food production of northwest China is the most serious deterioration, and the deterioration of north China is the lightest.(4) Under the circumstance of B2, the average temperature in our country will increase by0.28℃in2020. Except for Tibet, the average temperature in all provinces will increase, among which the central south boasts the most obvious increase, some provinces and areas in the southwest have the obvious increase, the east and the northwest are modest, the north and the northeast are inconspicuous. The average precipitation in China will not change obviously in2020, with small increase in most provinces, much increase in the provinces and areas in the east, and small decrease in some provinces in the central south and the southwest.(5) Construct respectively two kinds of simulation program:the impact of climate change simulation program and climate change adaptation simulation program. Simulate and analyze food production in each region under five different scenarios of two kinds of simulation schemes through the Chinese agriculture policy analysis model. Analyze the grain planting area and yield changes and planting structure changes under different scenarios in each region; analyze the influence of different scenarios to food security in the future. The impact of climate change simulation program simulate the scene of water resource shortage due to a reduction in rainfall or the scene of per unit area yield decrease due to climate change in the future. If drought happens in some provinces and areas with decreasing water resources in the future, the overall yield of grain will decrease by0.5%. Grain yield will be reduced in the north, southwest and northwest of China, especially in North and Northwest of China, the rate of reduction in grain yield will be more than10%. The drought in some provinces and areas has little impact on the overall yield of the grain in the country, and each region will replant upland crops which need small water in order to reduce the adverse effects caused by drought. In the case of the increasing temperature and declining yield of grains per unit in the future, the overall yield of grain in the country will decrease by10.1%. The overall yield of rice will decrease by12.8%, the overall yield of wheat will decrease by10.0%, and the overall yield of corn will decrease by7.1%. Grain yield will be reduced in north, east, south central, southwest, northwest of China, while the grain yield in northeast will increase slightly. To some degree, the increase of the temperature will bring negative impact on the food production of China in the future.(6) Climate change adaptation simulation program simulate the human take positive and effective measures (extension of double cropping rice, technology progress) in order to deal with climate change and estimate the effect through the scene simulation. As the double cropping of rice spreads in some provinces and areas, the overall yield of grain will increase by1.5%. The overall yield of rice will increase by3.7%, especially the overall yield of rice in the central south will increase by12.7%, but the yield of wheat and corn did not change significantly. The generalization of the double cropping of rice in some provinces and areas plays a positive role in the food yield of the whole country. Under the circumstance of the suitability of the technological progress, the overall yield of grain will increase by14.9%. The overall yield of rice will increase by14.9%, the overall yield of wheat will increase by3.5%, and the overall yield of corn will increase by22.6%. North China will become the largest producing area of wheat in China while Northeast boasts a bigger growth rate of grain output, accounting for one fourth of the total grain output of the nation. The suitability measures of technological progress can offset the negative impact on the food production by the change of climate, which is very import in increasing the yield of grain of the whole country in the future. Under the circumstance of climate change comprehensive adaptability, the overall yield of grain will increase by25.4%. The overall yield of rice will increase by35.6%, the overall yield of wheat will increase by12.6%, and the overall yield of corn will increase by22.6%. Except for Northwest, all of five other regions will increase in grain output. In Northeast, the growth rate will be quite obvious in grain output, especially corn output, accounting for half of the total corn output of the nation. In the meantime, adaptation measures of promoting both double cropping rice and introduction will bring about increase in grain output more obviously than those of simply promoting double cropping rice, and simply promoting introduction and technological advance.(7) By2020, China will achieve a self-sufficiency rate of77.2%in grain. In the future, under the condition of climate change of drought in some provinces and regions, the self-sufficiency rate will be76.8%, and among three main crops only corn will face decrease in the rate; under the condition of climate change that rising temperature leads to reduced per unit area yield of grain, the self-sufficiency rate will be69.4%, and all three main crops will face decrease of which rice will reduce by11%; under the adaptation condition of climate change of promoting double cropping rice in some provinces and regions, the self-sufficiency rate will be78.3%; under the adaptation condition of climate change of promoting introduction and technological advance, the self-sufficiency rate will be88.6%and rice will be close to complete self-sufficiency; under comprehensive adaptation condition of climate change, the self-sufficiency rate will reach96.7%where grain will basically reach complete self-sufficiency, which can increase the self-sufficiency rate obviously higher than simple promotion of double cropping rice and simple promotion of introduction and technological advance, and offset the adverse impact of climate change on grain output, thus ensuring strong protection of national food safety and achieving the strategic goal of national food safety.Finally, our country should adopt some measures from adaptation aspect to deal with climate change in food production based on the above research conclusion. |
PDF Full Text Request