Resilience Of Regional Water Resources System From Perspective Of Complexity Diagnostic Analysis

As China's most northeastern provincial administrative region,Heilongjiang Province has two major commercial grain bases and important natural forest farms in the country.However,with economic development and urbanization intensified,serious exploitatio n of natural resources such as forests,and excessive development of farmland,water resources system of Heilongjiang has been severely damaged,and precipitation changes are complex,resulting in increased brittleness of the water resources system and affecting normal production and life of human beings.In view of this background,this study takes 13 regions in Heilongjiang Province as examples to find the best way to explore the complexity of regional precipitation.According to evaluation index construction principle and the optimal algorithm to screen the indicators,construct the water resources system resilience evaluation index system,evaluate the resilience of the regional water resources system in Heilongjiang Province,explore temporal and spatial evolution of system resilience,and combine them according to key driving factors determined in each region Regional precipitation complexity,completed the research on impact of resilience from perspective of complexity,main research results are as follows:(1)Based on the precipitation data of 13 regions in Heilongjiang Province from 1967 to 2017,CMFO-PPTTE is used to improve MSPE to analyze the complexity of precipitation changes and the overall distribution of precipitation in various regions of Heilong jiang Province.Among them,altitude,water area and urban construction area are the significant influencing factors,which determine the level of precipitation complexity in various regions of Heilongjiang Province.(2)Using discrimination theory to analyze the results of improve MSPE by CMFO-PPTTE(CMFO-PPTTE-MSPE),whale optimization algorithm(WOA)based projection pursuit threat target evaluation model,?-particle swarm optimization algorithm(?-PSO)based projection pursuit threat target evaluation model to improve MSPE and traditional multi-scale permutation entropy partial mean algorithm,The results show that CMFO-PPTTE-MSPE model is more reasonable,stable,and has advantages.It can be used as a new method to explore the complexity of precipitation.(3)According to the characteristics of the water resources system in Heilongjiang Province,referring to previous research results and evaluation index construction principles,R clustering-coefficient of variation method is used to classify the primary indic ators,and Cov-AHP algorithm is used to screen the final indicators as,Precipitation complexity entropy(EP),unduplicated amount of groundwater resources and surface water resources(A5),average wages of employees(B5),proportion of total agricultural output in GDP(B13),vegetation coverage(C4),per capita green area(C9),Water production coefficient(C11),water-saving irrigation rate(D2),per capita arable land area(D7),grain crop yield per unit area(D9).(4)Principal component analysis and weighted rank sum ratio algorithm are used to screen the primary selection indicators,based on the conclusions of Cov-AHP algorithm,combined with the rationality judgment criteria of the indicator construction system,the three algorithm construction indicators are analyzed,and the results show: R clustering-Cov-AHP algorithm construction system under the coefficient of variation method is more reasonable and advantageous.(5)According to the Heilongjiang Water Resources System Resilience Index Evaluation System,CMFO-PPTTE model,?-PSO-PPTTE model and projection pursuit threat target evaluation model based on the Artificial bee colony optimization algorithm(ABC-PPTTE)to study the resilience of water resources system in 13 regions of Heilongjiang Province from 2 008 to 2017,and based on The Spearman correlation coefficient method and the discrimination theory determine that the conclusions obtained under CMFO-PPTTE model are more reasonable.(6)Using CMFO-PPTTE model and screening index data of various regions to ex plore the temporal and spatial distribution of the resilience of the overall water resources system in Heilongjiang Province in 2009,2011,2013,2015 and 2017.It also analyzes the trend of water resource system resilience in various regions of Heilongjia ng Province.(7)Analyze the system resilience effect of 13 regions in Heilongjiang Province based on the Cov-AHP algorithm,and determine the key driving factors.Based on the regional precipitation complexity and the key driving factors,the regional water r esources resilience change law from the perspective of complexity is analyzed,and the precipitation complexity is explored.Based on the strength of the impact of sex on the system's resilience,an adaptive regulation mechanism is proposed.The results show that the entropy of precipitation complexity,the unduplicated amount of groundwater resources and surface water resources,the per capita arable land area,and the yield of grain crops per unit area are the key driving factors for the overall resilienc e of Heilongjiang Province,which can provide science for the restoration of the water resources system in Heilongjiang Province.And realistic basis,and provide a new perspective to ensure the stable development of the water resources system in the future.