Assessing Water Resource Security In The Beijing-Tianj In-hebei Region At County Level In The Context Of Regional Synergistic Development

This thesis selects the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(referred to as "Jingjinji")region as the study area,which is the most populous and economically concentrated region in China.The rapid industrialization,urbanization,population explosion,and economic development have resulted in water resources being extremely scarce and overexploited,as well as disturbances of the water cycle being the strongest worldwide,which pose severe challenges to regional sustainable development.Moreover,significant transformations in water resources will take place in this region,including the implementation of regional synergistic development,the construction of inter-basin water diversion projects(WDP)such as the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,and climate change.To this end,it is of practical significance to assess the water resource security in the Jingjinji region under the changing context.The main research contents of this thesis are as follows.(1)A index system based on the "Three Red Lines" of the "Strictest Water Resources Management System" is established to identify the tendency characteristics of water resources,which includes a three-layer(target,criteria,and index layers)hierarchical structure and a total of 25 indices.At the province level,the tendency characteristics of water use volume,water use efficiency,and water function are analyzed for the recent years.Furthermore,the principal component analysis(PCA)is introduced to identify the comprehensive tendency characteristics of water resources in this region.(2)This study collects a lot of socio-economic data for the 13 cities in the Jingjinji region.Based on the current status of socio-economic development,the population and GDP can be projected at the county level by interpreting a lot of plans related to the 13th five-year and regional synergistic development.The results provide an important base for the following work,such as the water demand prediction and assessment of water resources security at the county level.(3)The method based on water quota is used to establish the water demand model,taking into account the production,domestic,and environmental water sectors.The water demand is firstly projected at the city level under the regional synergistic development.Based on the remote sensing and a lot of statistical data,the results are then downscaled to project the water demand at the county level under different water consumption levels.(4)The natural water resources at the county level are obtained by collecting and processing the long-term land surface hydrologic dataset derived from the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model.The artificial water resources are obtained by collecting and processing the planning data of WDP to the Jingjinji region.Then,the spatial distributions of water resources at the county level under the current and projected future,in the annual mean and selected typical years,and with and without the WDP are predicted.(5)The water resources security at the county level under different scenario combinations,such as different typical years,with and without the WDP,regional synergistic development,and climate change,are assessed using the water availability per year per capita,water availability per unit(10,000 CNY)GDP,and water scarcity index,precipitation elasticity of runoff.The spatial distributions of water resources security are mapped based on the geographical information system.The proposed research methods can provide important references for other similar research.Moreover,the achievements gained from this thesis will reveal the spatial distribution characteristics of the carrying capacity of regional water resources to socio-economic development,provide scientific and technological supports for scientific water resource management and optimal allocation,guiding population transfer and industrial restructuring,and promoting regional sustainable development.