Dynamic Analysis And Prediction Of China’s Carbon Emission Based On Differential Equation

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economic train has been running at a high speed,accompanied by huge energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.Among them,the massive emission of carbon dioxide has caused the global greenhouse effect and seriously affected our ecological environment.In 2018,the total global carbon emission reached 331 billion tons,which is the highest carbon emission year in history.China has become the largest carbon emission country in the world,accounting for 27%of the global total.In recent years,China’s economy has carried out structural reform and its economic growth has slowed down.Both economic growth and ecological environment protection are related to the vital interests of the people,we must pay attention to them.Therefore,analyzing the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth,studying the dynamic changes of total carbon emissions and predicting the carbon emissions in recent years will help to coordinate economic development and carbon dioxide emissions,and make the country better formulate emission reduction policies.This paper takes China as the research object,on the basis of previous studies,uses decoupling theory and Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between China’s carbon emissions and economic growth;then,based on differential equation theory,it analyzes and forecasts China’s total carbon emissions in 1996-2018,and understands the change of China’s carbon emissions growth rate and future growth trend in 23 years,Based on this,some policy suggestions on low-carbon economy are put forward.The paper is divided into five chapters:The first chapter is the introduction.This paper mainly introduces the research background and significance of this paper.It is divided into two parts to sort out the domestic and foreign literature research on the relationship between carbon emission and economic growth and carbon emission prediction.It also summarizes and comments on the current research methods and shortcomings,and then gives the research content of this paper.The second chapter is the analysis of China’s carbon emission and economic development.First of all,in terms of the measurement method of carbon emissions,this paper chooses the carbon emission coefficient method,and then analyzes China’s carbon emissions in 1996-2018 from three aspects:total carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity,and makes a descriptive analysis of China’s GDP.The third chapter is the analysis of the relationship between China’s economic growth and carbon emissions.This chapter describes the decoupling theory and Granger causality test method.After analyzing the decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions,Granger causality test is carried out on the two,and it is found that there is a one-way causality between carbon emissions and economic growth.Chapter 4 is based on the differential equation to analyze and predict the carbon emissions,which is the focus of this paper.Based on the analysis of the nature of China’s carbon emission data,the differential equation is constructed,and the second derivative function is used to analyze the dynamic change of carbon emission.Then,we use the regression model to predict the total carbon emissions of China from 1996 to 2018,and predict the total carbon emissions of China in 2019 and 2020.Chapter 5 is conclusion and suggestion.Based on the conclusion of the previous chapters,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the low-carbon economy.The conclusions are as follows:(1)from 1996 to 2018,China’s carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption showed a sustained growth trend,and they basically showed the same trend of change.(2)In the analysis of the decoupling relationship between China’s carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth,it is found that in the 23 years from 1996 to 2018,China’s carbon emissions and economic growth are basically in a weak decoupling state for a long time,that is,in the process of economic growth,the pressure from the increasingly serious environment is greater than the growth rate of economic growth.(3)Through the Granger causality test of economic growth and carbon emissions,it is found that there is a one-way causality between carbon emissions and economic growth in China.(4)Using the differential equation to establish the carbon emission regression model,it is predicted that China’s carbon emission in 2019 will reach 2682.42 million tons,and the total carbon emission in 2020 will be 2733.37 million tons.