Study On A Stochastic Simulation Solution Method Of The Incomplete Information Evaluation Problem And Its Application In Measure Of Sustainable Development

The theories and methods of the comprehensive evaluation have broad application prospects in many fields,such as administration,medical pharmacy,industrial engineering,etc.,including the measurement of the city sustainability.The ideal evaluation results are based on the reasonable indicator system,the complete data of indicator,the clear weights,the reasonable aggregation model.However,it is difficult for the evaluator to obtain complete evaluation information since the interference of other objective factors in the evaluation process,so the normal evaluation problem turns into the evaluation problem based on the incomplete information.Although many achievements in the study of the uncertain evaluation problems have been made,it is still necessary for further development.On the basis of summarizing domestic and foreign literatures,this paper takes the incomplete indicator data as the research entry point,studies on a method of uncertain evaluation with,and applies it to the measurement of sustainable development level of Shandong province.The specific main works are as follows.(1)The complementation of incomplete indicator data.The incomplete indicator data are divided into two categories from the perspective of the data continuity on time dimension:discrete and continuous.According to the characteristics of the two types of incomplete data,this paper proposed the corresponding complementation methods.(2)The construction of the dynamic stochastic simulation solution method based on the incomplete data.On the basis of the complementation of the incomplete data,combining with the winning probability matrices obtained through the stochastic simulation,this paper proposed a dynamic stochastic simulation method.The method avoids the absoluteness of the evaluation conclusion "either one or the other",and shows the relative merits of the evaluation alternatives,making the evaluation conclusion more flexible.(3)The verification of the validity of the results of the stochastic simulation solution method of comprehensive evaluation.Firstly,a conclusion was obtained by using classical evaluation methods for an accurate evaluation problem.Then,another conclusion was obtained by using stochastic simulation solution method through the fuzzy processing of the evaluation information.The validity of results of the stochastic simulation solution method was verified by the comparison of the two conclusions.On the basis of the above,this paper conducted the uniform fuzzy analysis of the evaluation parameters.By simulating the degree of information uncertainty in the evaluation process,the variation of the results of the stochastic simulation solution method was analyzed.(4)The measurement of sustainable development levels of 17 cities in Shandong province.On the basis of the existing researches,this paper established the indicator system of city sustainability.The indicator data were collected through the statistic yearbooks and the evaluation results were obtained by the dynamic stochastic simulation method proposed by this paper.It can be seen from the evaluation results that the overall sustainable development level of Shandong province was in a fluctuating growth trend,among which Weihai performed the best,Heze performed the worst.The east coast had the best sustainable development,followed by the middle and the west.At last,the paper summarized the research content and pointed out the problems and prospects for further research.