Research On Regional Disaster Chain Network Model And Disaster Prevention And Reduction Countermeasures

With the continuous progress of urbanization,wealth and population are accumulating in the regional environment,and the contradictions between human and nature and between human and society are also accumulating.As a result,various disaster events occur frequently all over world,which causes a series of secondary disasters,resulting in the cumulative amplification of disasters and the aggravation of disaster losses.At the same time,the occurrence of disasters is often accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty and time urgency,which brings great challenges to the national crisis management work.Therefore,it is necessary to study formation mechanism of disaster chain,reveal the general rule of disaster evolution process,analyze the impact of regional environmental characteristics on disasters and provide decision-making support for national emergency response,so as to effectively curb the further spread of disasters,which is of great significance for improving the country's ability to prevent and control risks and cope with risks.Based on disaster system theory and complex network theory,four categories of emergencies are taken as the research objects and the disaster chain network model and the hazard-affected body relationship model are constructed in this paper.Meanwhile,through the practical cases of natural disasters and accidents,this paper also explores the general law of disaster chain formation and the driving effect of regional disaster bodies on the formation of disaster chain.Firstly,the connotation of disaster system theory and the concept of regional disaster chain are systematically elaborated,and the formation mechanism of disaster chain is sorted out in this paper.From the perspective of regional risk factors,the effect of disaster causing factors,disaster-generating environment and disaster-bearing bod in the formation of disaster chain are respectively expounded.Based on the life cycle theory,this paper describes the process from the beginning to the end of the disaster chain,which lays a theoretical foundation for the later research of this paper.Secondly,the disaster chain and main disaster bodies are extracted from historical disaster cases and pre-plan texts based on event tree analysis.Based on the principle of complex network,the python software is used to construct the disaster chain network and the disaster-disaster bearing body mapping network.And the coupling network model of regional disaster body and disaster chain is constructed by calculating the topological characteristics of the two networks and analyzing the correlation between disasters and disasters and between disasters and disaster bodies.Then,based on the general rules of disaster chain formation and the identification of key disaster bearing bodies,the real cases are verified to be consistent with the general law reflected by the above model through combing the disaster chains of hurricanes Maria and Sandy,the Tianjin port explosion accident and the Xiangshui explosion accident in Jiangsu.Taking two hurricane events and two explosion accidents as examples,this paper makes a comparative analysis of the environment in different regions of the same disaster type,and explores the influence of the difference of disaster bearing body attributes and correlation degree on the formation of regional disaster chain and disaster loss.Finally,based on the general law of evolution of disaster chain reflected in the research results and the significance of regional disaster bearing bodies to the formation of disaster chain,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for national comprehensive disaster prevention and reduction planning from the perspective of reducing regional risks and strengthening regional environmental resilience.