Research On The Probability Assessment Method Of Earthquake Secondary Fire Based On Disaster Chain Principle

Destructive earthquake is often accompanied by the occurrence of earthquake secondary disasters,the consequences can not be ignored.In the study of secondary earthquake disaster at home and abroad,there are more qualitative assessment of occurrence probability,but lack of quantitative probability assessment method reflecting the mechanism of disaster.This paper takes the post-earthquake fire as an example,cites the principle of disaster chain,analyzes the mechanism of the post-earthquake disaster,and uses Bayesian mathematical network model to evaluate the probability of the post-earthquake disaster,so as to provide necessary technical support for pre-earthquake prevention and post-earthquake emergency disaster reduction.On the basis of the summary and analysis of the research background and research status,the research content and technical ideas of this paper are proposed.The main research work is as follows:1.Classify the types of earthquake secondary fires.Collected examples of earthquake secondary fires at home and abroad and daily fires in my country,analyzed the disaster-causing mechanism based on the disaster chain principle,and obtained multiple disaster-causing chains and nodes.And by analyzing the similarity of the nodes and the difference of the relationship between the nodes,the types of earthquake secondary fires are divided,and the main nodes of various earthquake fires are given.2.Build a conditional probability matrix.The questionnaire is mainly set up through the expert experience method to quantify the functional relationship between nodes.Based on the data collected by the questionnaire,the process method of the main data processing for constructing the conditional probability matrix is given.3.Construct the evaluation method of earthquake secondary fire occurrence probability.Compared with the Bayesian mathematical network model,the physical model structure of the earthquake disaster chain is adjusted to conform to the one-way acyclic feature.Based on the Bayesian mathematical network model,an evaluation method for the probability of earthquake secondary fire occurrence is constructed.Correct the evaluation result by increasing the adjustment coefficient.4.Example analysis and verification.Based on the aforementioned research results,the probability of earthquake secondary fires is evaluated in combination with examples,and the feasibility of the evaluation method is analyzed and verified..