Credit Risk Assessment Of Small And Medium-sized Enterprises(Smes)based On Logistic Model

Small and medium-sized enterprises(smes)are the largest and most innovative enterprise groups in China.At the same time,in the Internet era,commercial Banks face the crossboundary challenges of inter-bank competition and Internet finance,so they urgently need to find a new blue ocean market.The large capital demand of small and medium-sized enterprises in China provides a broad market for the business development of commercial Banks.However,there are a large number of non-standard operations in the operation of small and medium-sized enterprises,and it is difficult to obtain all kinds of information,and the authenticity of information needs to be discussed.In particular,the information accuracy in financial statements is low.In fact,a large amount of non-financial information of small and mediumsized enterprises contains very rich information.However,at present,commercial Banks are weak in processing and analyzing these data,and most of them rely on experience to judge,which objectively results in inconsistent risk judgment standards,low efficiency and insufficient risk prevention and control capabilities.Therefore,commercial Banks should be prudent,comprehensive systemic risk does not occur for the bottom line,in order to satisfy the demands of small and medium-sized enterprise credit financing as the main line,in order to patent,concise credit approval process,establishes a set of enterprises to adapt to our country small and medium-sized enterprises overall credit risk evaluation mechanism,full and accurate complete level of small and medium-sized enterprise credit risk for commercial Banks and small and medium-sized enterprises have achieved great development.By reading Chinese and foreign literatures related to the risk credit assessment of small and medium-sized enterprises,I have sorted out and summarized relevant theories of credit risk assessment in the literatures.Then,according to the actual operation of the bank of Z,YY in small and medium-sized enterprise credit risk evaluation,points out the current problems of small and medium-sized enterprise credit risk evaluation,put forward the main use of small and medium-sized enterprise non-financial information,combined with some financial information,together with the building of small and medium-sized enterprise credit risk assessment of the binary Logistic regression model research train of thought.Of model and financial information and financial information has carried on the brief overview,variable selection principle,puts forward the model of the bank of Z,YY data for small and medium-sized enterprises,with strong credit risk assessment is related to a series of variables,including 12 financial information variables and 11 non financial information,the first screen to demographic variables,then use SPSS software for the model of binary Logistic regression model,and the model test of goodness of fit and accuracy sensitivity analysis,finally it is concluded that the small and medium-sized enterprise credit risk assessment model,The reliability and validity of the proposed model are verified by 20 sets of test sample data.The research results show that the shareholder background,operating profit rate and net profit rate are negatively correlated with the enterprise risk,while the number of equity changes,the ratio of costs and expenses,and the asset-liability ratio are positively correlated with the enterprise risk.At the end of this paper,based on the whole research process and the correlation coefficient of the credit risk assessment model,the author puts forward some Suggestions and Suggestions on how commercial Banks can better carry out the credit risk assessment of smes.