Study On The Climate Change Perception And Adaptation Behavior In The Chayu River Basin In Southeast Tibet

Global climate change is an indisputable fact,agriculture is one of the sectors most affected by climate change,and farmers' poverty often forms a vicious circle with the local fragile ecological environment.The Zayu River Basin is located on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with extremely fragile ecosystems and climate change has increased the livelihood vulnerability of local residents.For this reason,this paper uses meteorological data to analyze the trend of climate change in Zayu River basin,using descriptive statistics,relative perceived intensity,mean value,standard deviation and other methods to analyze the questionnaire data,to study the residents' perception and adaptation to climate change and the differences at different altitudes,and to use ordered Logistic regression and chi-square test to analyze the factors affecting residents' perception and adaptation to climate change.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)In the Zayu River Basin,the temperature has increased significantly in the last 40 years,especially at 0?,which affects the growth and reproduction of plants and animals,and the range suitable for insect survival extends to high altitude areas.The precipitation tends to be concentrated and the total precipitation is decreasing,the start time of the rainy season is delayed and the end date is advanced,and the duration of the rainy season is shortened,which leads to the rainy season prone to waterlogging,soil erosion,mountain torrents,landslides and debris flows and other meteorological disasters,while the dry season is aggravated.(2)The age,sex and occupation of the population affect their perception of climate change and its effects to varying degrees.However,local residents generally can accurately perceive climate change trends and their effects.Residents' relative perceived intensity of temperature change is greater than that of precipitation,which may be due to the large spatial difference of precipitation change relative to temperature.However,the adaptation behavior of farmers is not synchronized with their perception,the response rate and popularization rate of farmers' overall adaptation behavior selection are low,the diversity of adaptation strategies is obviously low,the enthusiasm of active adaptation to climate change is not high,and the adaptation behavior obviously tends to adjust the crop layout,increase the intensity of pesticide use and cooperate with others.(3)Altitude has a significant effect on the perception of climate change among the inhabitants of the Zayu River Basin.The relative perceived intensity of climate change phenomenon in Zayu River basin is positively related to the elevation height.The higher the altitude,the stronger the relative perceived intensity of climate change phenomenon.All three gradient residents can accurately sense the rising trend of temperature,but the perception of precipitation is quite different.Low altitude gradient residents think that water resources and the beginning time of rainy season change little,but the perception of increased pests and diseases is particularly strong,and most residents think that new pests:Branchiura sowerbyi Beddard.In the context of global climate change,the main negative impact on low-altitude areas is an increase in pests and diseases,while high-altitude areas are characterized by increased drought.(4)Altitude has a significant effect on the adaptation behavior of the residents in the Zayu River Basin.residents with three gradients are more consistent in choosing to cooperate with others to resist climate change,rather than transferring labor to non-agricultural industries,which is related to their traditional family culture.In the face of severe pest and disease disasters,the residents of the first gradient are more inclined to choose to adjust the structure of crop cultivation,implement drought rotation and agricultural drug use intensity,but the proportion of increasing pesticide use intensity is lower than that of the second gradient,which is because drought rotation is one of the ways to effectively reduce the harm of earthworms in gill.The adaptation measures adopted by the residents of the third gradient are mainly to deal with drought,while the residents of the intermediate gradient have measures in both aspects.Farmers' choice of adaptive behavior is influenced by their perception,local traditional culture and other factors.