Based On The Research And Empirical Analysis Of China's Crude Oil Futures Pricing Model

Crude oil is recognized as one of the world's leading energy sources.China's crude oil imports and crude oil consumption are both among the top in the world.However,in the global crude oil futures trading market,China's crude oil futures do not have much influence.There is a lack of pricing benchmarks that reflect the actual supply of crude oil in China.Based on this,this paper studies the domestic and international crude oil futures pricing models,and studies the crude oil futures pricing models with jump factors based on the characteristics of China's crude oil futures.First,the analytical solution of the three-factor crude oil futures pricing model is strictly derived.The proof process using the stochastic differentiation method and the use of probability statistics and stochastic process knowledge to carry out detailed parameter estimation;Then,by studying China's Shanghai futures contract affected by the 2020 epidemic,the crude oil futures pricing model with jump factors was made Further analysis,using the method of stochastic differentiation to derive the analytical solution of the model,and solving the estimation formula of the model parameters based on probability statistics and stochastic process knowledge;Finally,according to the characteristics of China's crude oil futures market,more major contracts are selected for empirical analysis,and the results are It shows that the traditional three-factor crude oil futures model has a better predictive ability for the crude oil futures market in 2019;for the 2020 data,the crude oil futures pricing model with jump factors studied in this article has a better predictive ability than the traditional three-factor crude oil futures pricing model Even better,it shows the rationality and practicability of the model.The research provides a certain theoretical and empirical analysis basis for the pricing research of China's crude oil futures.