Application And Research Of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Based On SIR Model

Coronavirus disease(COVID-19)which broke out at the end of 2019,has caused a public health disaster worldwide.Since the beginning of the spread,China has taken extremely strict prevention and control measures and achieved good results.Carrying out research on the COVID-19 will not only help to understand transmission rules,study its epidemic trend,but also provide theoretical support for taking active efficient anti-epidemic measures.Furthermore,it has the realistic foundation and research values.Based on SIR infectious disease model,according to public date and development time of COVID-19.Carried out modelling empirical research on the epidemic change and prevention and control in Wuhan and Hebei successively.Firstly,introduced the typical SIR model and has Markov chain stochastic process in the modeling.Analyze and compare the propagation mechanism and kinetic properties of the two models.Secondly,the infection rate ? and removal rate ? of important parameters are estimated by ordinary least squares in the empirical research of the two places.At the same time,an empirical comparison of the COVID-19 in was conducted.It was found that the latter was lower than the former in terms of the scale,cycle,and healing time.In the last,evaluated the epidemic prevention and control measures,and calculated the number of recurrences of COVID-19 in the two places.Analyzing the impact of isolation and medical and health interventions under different intensities on the epidemic,the results show that strengthening isolation control and improving medical health interventions can effectively curb the spread of the epidemic and reduce casualties.