| As an important basic resource for social and economic development,water resources play an irreplaceable role in production and life.At present,Water shortage is the main water resource problem facing China.among them,due to the continuous growth of the population,the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization,the problem of water shortage is becoming more and more serious,and the total shortage of water resources in China makes it particularly important to improve the efficiency of water use and the ability to allocate and manage water resources.The concept of virtual water and water footprint has expanded the research perspective of water resources management,which is of great significance for alleviating the problem of water shortage in our country.In view of this,this article based on the data of multi-regional input-output tables in 2002,2007,2012 and 2015,using the multi-regional input-output model(MRIO)to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of water resources in China,and then combined with the social network analysis method(SNA)to analyze the spatial correlation,structural characteristics and temporal and spatial trends of China's water resource flow network,as well as the role of provinces in the network;Based on the 2017 input-output table and related meteorological data,adding green water consumption to agricultural water use,use input-output models and structural path analysis to analyze the total amount and structure of water consumption in 42 sectors of China,and the specific path of water consumption in the production chain;Based on the single regional input-output tables and relevant meteorological data in 2010,2012,2015 and 2017,and add green water consumption to agricultural water,the single-region input-output model and structural decomposition analysis(SDA)were used to analyze the changes of water footprint composition and total amount,as well as the driving factors influencing the changes of water footprint in the three stages of2010-2012,2012-2015 and 2015-2017.The main research results are as follows:(1)From the perspective of temporal and spatial differentiation of water footprint,from2002 to 2015,the total water footprint showed a general increasing trend,but the change of the total water footprint is not directly proportional to the speed of economic development,the level of economic development is not the only decisive factor affecting the change of water resource consumption;The total water footprint has always maintained a high value in East China,Southwest China,South China and Central China,the total water footprint of Northwest and North China declined in 2015,there are only a few provinces where the total water footprint remains stable,the spatial distribution pattern of water resources utilization in China is gradually reasonable,each province gradually pay attention to the comprehensive effects of economy,society and environment.(2)From the water footprint spatial association network,From 2002 to 2015,the number of links between provinces did not increase with the increase in water footprint trade value,but the flow on the link path continued to increase,at the same time,the transfer of water resources in China is highly dependent on the spatial correlation network,but there are certain grade differences in the network structure,the toughness and stability of the network need to be enhanced,and the spatial correlation channels need to be expanded;The water footprint spatial correlation network is in dynamic change,and the flow in the link path in the network does not increase with the increase of the number and strength of links in each province,there are only some permanently active link paths in the network,and the traffic is mainly concentrated on these paths,the increase of links in some provinces will weaken the number of links in other provinces.This feature of plasticity is conducive to the rational allocation of water resources across the country;The water footprint spatial association network is divided into four sections,the spillover relationship between the plates is mainly based on the interior of the plate,and there is no spillover relationship between individual plates,this unbalanced spillover relationship will to a large extent make the phenomenon of"the rich get richer"more prominent,intensified the dependence of most regions on a few water footprint trading centers,which is not conducive to the rational allocation of water resources across the country.(3)From the perspective of agricultural green water resources,among the 17agricultural products,the consumption of green water resources of cereals and beef is much higher than that of other agricultural products,especially cereals,which are the main agricultural products that affect the total green water resources of crops and the total agricultural green water resources;agricultural products green water resources consumption differences are large,among them,crop demand,production and planting methods,meteorological conditions and soil and water resources conditions are the main reasons that affect the difference of green water resources between crops,the different types of feed for agricultural and livestock products are the main reasons that affects the difference of green water resources of agricultural and livestock products.(4)From the path of water footprint consumption,In the composition of the total water footprint in 2017,the water footprint of urban residents'consumption and imports was the highest,followed by rural residents'consumption,and most of the sectors with a higher water footprint were mainly residential consumption,The level of total household consumption is the main reason that affects China's water footprint.At the same time,the water footprint of domestic consumption is much higher than that based on my country's production.Imported water resources make up for part of the domestic production water consumption,but the situation of water shortages still severe;On the whole,the water footprint consumption of the first 5 levels of the production chain accounts for about 95%of the total water footprint(except for the export),among which the internal consumption of the department takes the largest proportion,the key path of water consumption is mainly direct consumption within the department,the feedback loop of water resources is weak,and the water footprint decreases with the increase of the number of levels,among them,the indirect water footprint consumption of the first three levels accounts for a relatively large amount;From the perspective of the department's production chain,the water footprint within the department accounts for the largest proportion,decreasing step by step,the difference between the inflow and outflow water footprints of the department is large,the unidirectional dependence characteristics prevail among departments,and the correlation network is not stable enough,In addition,the storage of water resources within the department is the beginning of the feedback cycle of the production chain,but the storage capacity does not play a full role in promoting;From the perspective of final consumption,agricultural,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery products and services,food,and tobacco appear more frequently in the production chain,and are important connections,However,the high demand and important linkage function also increase the pressure of water resource consumption in agricultural production areas,and the diversified consumption demand of the middle and lower sectors of the production chain increases the pressure of water resource in the upstream sector.(5)From the perspective of the driving factors of water footprint change,from 2010 to2017,the total water footprint of the final use increased by 223.737 billion m~3.The population scale and economic scale effect play a positive effect.Among them,the economic scale effect is the most important factor to promote the growth of China's water resources.Technological progress,economic structure and sector linkage effects Play a negative effect,reduce the total water consumption;Among the influencing factors of water footprint changes in the agricultural sector,the effect of technological progress has always played a negative effect in the three stages,the effect of population scale and economic scale has always played a positive effect,and the sector linkage effect has shown a trend of increase first and then decrease in the three stages,the effect of economic structure shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing;Among the influencing factors of water footprint changes in the industrial sector,population scale and economic scale effects always play a positive effect,economic structure effects always play a negative effect,sector linkages and technological progress effects as a whole play a negative and positive effect respectively;Among the factors affecting the changes in the water footprint of the service sector,population scale and economic scale effects play a positive effect in the three stages,sector linkages and economic structure effects play a negative effect overall,and technological progress effects play a positive role on the whole. |
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