Research On Risk Early Warning And Pre-control Of Node Enterprises In Innovation Chain

The level of innovation capability of an enterprise determines the strength of its development potential.Competition among enterprises has increasingly embodied in competition among supply chains,and competition in technological innovation among enterprises has also embodied in competition among innovation chains.At present,there are many related researches on innovation chains,but there are few studies on innovation chain risk.Taking node enterprises in innovation chain as the object,studying their risk issues,and exploring scientific and effective methods for risk early warning and pre-control of node enterprises in innovation chain has become an important research topic.This article has utilized grounded theory,ISM-DEMATEL,game theory,Bayesian Network and other methods to systematically study principles and approaches of risk early warning and pre-control of node enterprises in innovation chain in the context of Sino-US trade friction.This article has analyzed the risk transfer effect,the black swan effect,the gray rhino effect,and the early warning and precontrol models of node enterprises in innovation chain,to provide a reference for the practice on risk early warning and pre-control of node enterprises in innovation chain.The contents of this paper include:(1)Defining the innovation chain and risk of node enterprises in innovation chain,putting forward the risk transfer effect of node enterprises in innovation chain,demonstrating the black swan effect and the gray rhino effect,summarizing 18 risk factors such as management risk,technology risk,brain drain risk and etc.,and drawing a multi-level hierarchical structure model of risk factors of node enterprises in innovation chain.The analysis shows that external risks such as management risk,market demand change risk,competitor risk,political environment risk,and economic environment risk are the root causes of node enterprise risks in innovation chain.(2)Constructing a risk early warning model,using DEMATEL to determine weights of each risk factor to evaluate the risk early warning.Based on the principle of risk early warning,the article analyzes the game behavior caused by information asymmetry in risk early warning communication for the stage of risk identification and early warning assessment: At the risk identification phase,non-core enterprises need to inform the core enterprises of the risk information in a timely manner,and upstream and downstream enterprises need to share risk information;At the early warning assessment phase,analyzing three different situations where the risk comes from the enterprises,other enterprises,and the innovation chain as a whole.(3)On the basis of early warning,in view of the risk pre-control of node enterprises in innovation chain,proposing a four-governance mechanism combining "selfgovernance,governance by others,collaborative governance,regulatory governance",constructing a risk pre-control model of node enterprises in innovation chain,proposing the pre-control strategies such as information sharing,four-chain integration,access control partition and game transformation.(4)Taking HUAWEI Corporation as an example,and conducting risk identification,risk analysis,risk assessment,risk early warning and risk pre-control.The innovations of this paper are: Firstly,the risk transfer effect of node enterprises in innovation chain is explained,the black swan effect and the gray rhino effect of node enterprises in innovation chain are demonstrated;Secondly,a four governance mechanism for risk pre-control is putted forward.