Research On Online Supply Chain Financial Risk Warning Based On Hydrological Model

In recent years,the problem of financing difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises has become more and more serious.With the development of mobile Internet and e-commerce,online supply chain finance has emerged as the times require,and it has quickly become a key means to solve this problem.Compared with traditional supply chain finance business,online supply chain finance shows significant advantages in terms of information symmetry and financing efficiency.With the help of the power of the network platform,it integrates the logistics,information flow,capital flow and business flow in the supply chain,and realizes the information synergy between financial institutions and online participants,which greatly improves the approval efficiency of financial institutions and the financing speed of small and medium-sized enterprises.Currently,online supply chain finance increasingly rapid development,has been widely used in multiple studies.Although online supply chain finance is widely recognized,for financial institutions,risks arising from the development of online supply chain financial services cannot be ignored.Based on risk management theory,this paper introduces the distributed hydrological model in hydrology into the field of online supply chain finance,designs and constructs an online supply chain financial risk early warning model and conducts an empirical analysis.First,the research background of this article is explained and the development status of online supply chain finance at home and abroad is summarized.At the same time,the concept of online supply chain finance,related theories of distributed hydrological models and related methods used in the model are introduced.The establishment of a hydrological model-based online supply chain financial risk early warning model laid the foundation.Secondly,it elaborates on the financing business model and process of online supply chain finance,finds sources of financing risks and selects early warning indicators to establish an online supply chain financial risk early warning indicator system.Third,construct an online supply chain financial risk early warning model based on hydrological models,and use random forest and naive Bayes algorithm to monitor,measure,and warn online supply chain financial risks.Finally,collecting data through empirical research shows the effectiveness of the risk early warning model in this paper and gives suggestions for the development of the financial risk management field of online supply chain in the future.