Tourism Consumption Forecast Based On Time Series And Evolutionary Game Analysis Of Related Stakeholders

In recent years,with the support of my country’s policies and the improvement of tourism infrastructure,the tourism has developed rapidly and formed a relatively large scale.It is a strategic pillar industry of China’s national economy.Due to its wide industrial coverage,a series of related industries have entered the rapid development mode,which has expanded the demand field of China’s talent market,increased the employment rate of the people,and made a very outstanding contribution to the growth of China’s GDP.Moreover,due to geographical conditions,history and humanities,economic development and other factors,China’s regional tourism development is characterized by diversification and uneven development.There are still unresolved problems in the distribution of benefits within the operating system of the tourism in some regions.At present,our country’s tourism and related industries are still in the recovery stage under the impact of the epidemic.Under the context of the impact of the plague prevention,this thesis takes the tourism industry of Guizhou Province as an example,and the following work has been done:1.A wide range of domestic and Guizhou Province tourism,transportation,consumption levels and other data have been collected from the statistical yearbook,which is filtered,interpolated,removed dimension,carried on principal component analysis(PCA)and other sorting work in the Python3 environment Outline.2.The obtained data is fitted by the autoregressive integrated moving average model and the back propagation neural network,and we established the integrated model,which is solved by using nonlinear programming theory and the Kuhn-Tucker conditions.Moreover,we completed data fitting,found the optimal model that fits the data from the perspective of model evaluation,and used it to make short-term forecasts for the tourism situation in the next few years3.Under supervised and unsupervised conditions,an evolutionary game model was established for the strategies and behaviors of tourism stakeholders in the influence of the epidemic.The evolutionary stable strategy was obtained by solving the replication dynamic equations.The results show that the tourism and related industries have shrunk under the impact of the epidemic,and their strategy evolution in the game process will deviate.However,the government actively introduces relevant assistance policies and has reasonable restraint strategies and regulations,both sides of the game can still work closely through the period of the epidemic to promote the development of tourism and regional economy.