| Nowadays,with the rapid advancement of new urbanization,urban spatial expansion,demographic transition,economic growth,but also inevitably associated excessive consumption of resources,environmental pollution,ecosystem function decline and other resources and environmental problems.Especially in the urban agglomeration areas where population,industry,economy and other factors are highly mobile,it is the conflicting area between resource environment and social and economic development.Located in the upper reaches of the Yellow River,the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration,which accounts for about 8.3% of the area of Gansu and Qinghai provinces,carries 44.36% of the population and 52.8% of the GDP of the two provinces.It is the most densely populated and urban area in Gansu and Qinghai.However,due to the constraints of geographical location,resource environment,economic foundation and other conditions,most of the urban construction land reserves are in short supply,the atmospheric environment capacity is limited,water shortages in some cities,and the gap in urban development needs to be resolved urgently.Therefore,it is particularly important to conduct comprehensive evaluation research on the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration,and it is also necessary for the realization of sustainable development.This research is based on summarizing the related conceptual features of resource and environmental carrying capacity and combing the research progress at home and abroad,and according to the development status of social economy,resources,ecological environment and other factors of the 39 counties in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration,constructs the resource and environment carrying capacity evaluation system of Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration from the three dimensions of social economy,natural resources and ecological environment,and use entropy method and comprehensive index development model to analyze and compare the resource and environment of Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration in 2005,2010,2015,and 2018 Changes in carrying capacity;With the help of Arc GIS,SPSS,Geo Da and other technical support,analyze the evolution of the spatio-temporal pattern of resource and environmental carrying capacity of 39 counties in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration,and identify the main obstacles to the resource and environmental carrying capacity of each county in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration.Finally,according to the comprehensive evaluation results of resource and environment carrying capacity and the diagnosis of obstacle factors,the proposed countermeasures for the new urbanization development of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration are proposed.The important conclusions of the paper are as follows:(1)From 2005 to 2018,the resource and environmental carrying capacity index of the counties and districts of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration showed a steady upward trend at a low level.The overall resource and environmental carrying capacity index of the urban agglomeration was between 0.2586-0.3479.The average annual growth rate was 2.31 percent.The high level of resource and environmental carrying capacity and the higher core areas are concentrated in Lanzhou and Xining urban areas.The medium-level resource and environmental carrying capacity are distributed around high carrying areas such as Baiyin district,Anding district,and Linxia city.The low level counties are mostly located in remote areas such as Dongxiang county,Jishishan county,Guide County,Guinan county,Tongren county and Jianzha county,which are basically in line with the economic foundation,geographical location,topography and infrastructure of each county.(2)From the evolution of the spatial pattern of the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration from 2005 to 2018,it can be seen that the comprehensive index of resource and environmental carrying capacity varies greatly in space.The areas with higher resource and environmental carrying capacity are mainly distributed in the Hehuang Valley and some surrounding counties with Lanzhou and Xining as the center.Spatially,the body shows a spatial distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west,and high in the middle and low in the periphery.From the global spatial autocorrelation analysis,it is found that the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration has a positive spatial correlation,and the spatial agglomeration characteristics are obvious.The analysis of cold and hot spots shows that the 1-hour economic circle of Lanzhou City,Baiyin District,and the main urban area of Xining City are hot spots of urban agglomerations,while sub-hot spots such as Linxia City,Anding District,Lintao County and Pingan District are mainly distributed around the hot spots.The hotspot area and sub-hotspot area form two dual core areas with Lanzhou and Xining as the center in the east and midwest of the urban agglomeration,which are high-value cluster areas for the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the entire region.(3)In the gray trend forecast analysis,it can be concluded that Chengguan District,Qilihe District,Xigu District,Anning District,Baiyin District,Chengdong District,Chengzhong District,Chengxi District and Chengbei District of the resource and environmental carrying capacity are showing an increasing trend,while individual counties such as Haiyan County,Guinan County,Tongren County,Jianzha County fluctuates and declines;From the perspective of its distribution trend,the distribution trend of higher-level areas with higher resource and environmental carrying capacity in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration is still concentrated in the main urban area of the central city and its nearby counties,especially the surrounding counties and districts have increased their resource and environmental carrying capacity.To a certain extent,this is inseparable from the central city's radiating and driving the surrounding counties.The southern and western counties and districts of the urban agglomeration such as Tongren County,Jianzha County,Guinan County,and Dongxiang County are still low of resource and environmental carrying capacity.(4)From the diagnosis results of obstacle factors,among the 39 counties in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration,the frequency of obstacle factors for the carrying capacity of resources and environment,from high to low,is per capita water resources,per capita arable land area,and per capita useable land Resource area,per capita GDP,environmental pollution control investment as a percentage of GDP,urbanization rate of permanent population,energy processing and conversion efficiency,per capita green area,etc.From the obstacle factors of the target layer,the natural resource system and the ecological environment system have a high degree of obstacles.The shortage of water resources and reserve land resources,the insufficient environmental protection investment,and the special topography have affected the improvement of the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration.(5)According to the comprehensive evaluation and spatial dynamic analysis of the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration,combined with the diagnosis of obstacles,it is necessary to propose a systematic and differentiated optimization control for the improvement of the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration under the background of new urbanization.Countermeasures include revitalizing the land space stock,building intensive towns;doing a good job in the prevention and control of the "three wastes" and water resources management,building green towns;promoting resource and environmental carrying capacity monitoring and early warning work,and building wisdom and digital towns and other paths realize the coordinated and orderly development of new towns and the carrying capacity of resources and environment. |
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