Evaluation Of Resource And Environmental Carrying Capacity Of Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration Based On The Perspective Of Carrier-load

With the development of regional economy,urban agglomeration has increasingly become the main form of new urbanization and the main space carrying development elements.Compared with ordinary areas,urban agglomerations have more population and need broader space,more resource elements.So the pressure on the resources environment system is greater,and it has become an area with high concentration and intensification of resources environment problems.The research on the resource environment carrying capacity of urban agglomeration not only helps to coordinate the contradiction between resource environment system and social economic development,but also promotes the sustainable and high-quality development of urban agglomeration.Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration is one of the important urban agglomerations in northern China.After years of development,there have been some problems,such as uncoordinated overall development,destruction of ecological environment and tightening resource constraints.The research on the resource environmental carrying capacity of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration will help to guide it to walk out of a high-quality development road and play a leading role in the development of Yellow River Region.Through the literature review,it is found that there are deficiencies in the previous research on resources environment carrying capacity.For example,it pays too much attention to quantitative research,so that ignores how to establish the carrying capacity of resources environment.It lacks a systematic understanding of resources environment.Therefore,from the perspective of system,the whole operation process of resource environment system is considered in this thesis,and its main elements and the interaction are understood.Starting from the source of the concept of carrying capacity,the connotation of resource environment carrying capacity is understood.Based on the analysis of the current situation of resources environment of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration,the carrier and load are identified;Through the methods of theoretical analysis and frequency analysis,the evaluation index system is constructed from the perspectives of carrier and load.Establish the evaluation model of resource environment carrying capacity,evaluate the resource environment carrying capacity of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration from 2011 to 2020.Next we identify the main obstacle factors of resource environment system carrier and load,and put forward suggestions.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）Time evolution analysis.The carrier index shows a gradual upward trend,which shows that the support capacity to the load is gradually improved.In terms of dimensions,the change trend of natural resource carrier index is relatively gentle.The natural environment carrier index shows a trend of rising first and then decreasing slightly.The ecological service carrier index shows a trend of gradually rising.The social support carrier index changes sharply,showing an "M" type change trend.The load index shows a gradual downward trend,which shows that the load of the resource environment system of Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration gradually reduces the pressure on the carrier.In terms of dimensions,the population load index shows a "U" shape.The load index of social structure and economic development level shows a gradual downward trend.The change trend of resource consumption load is small.The environmental pollution load index shows a gradual downward trend.The resource environment carrying capacity index shows a gradual downward trend,which shows that resources environment carrying capacity of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration has realized the transformation from insufficient to excess.And its sustainable development level is good.（2）Spatial evolution analysis.The carrier index presents a "core periphery" spatial structure with Binzhou,Weifang and Jining as the center and spreading around from the East West Middle gradually decreasing in 2011 and 2015 to 2020.The load index shows the distribution gradually decreasing from the west to the Middle East in 2011 and 2015 to the northeast northwest to the east coast in 2020.The resource environmental carrying capacity index shows gradual decrease from the northwest to the East in 2011 and 2015,and gradual decrease from the central axis to the East and West in 2020.（3）Obstacle factor analysis.The top five obstacle factors of city carriers are the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste,the proportion of general public services in financial expenditure,per capita water supply,the proportion of science and technology expenditure in financial expenditure and per capita cultivated land area.The first obstacle factor of most cities is the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste,and the second is the per capita water supply.The top five obstacle factors of city load are per capita GDP,power consumption of 10000 yuan GDP,population density,per capita daily domestic water consumption,water consumption of 10000 yuan GDP and GDP growth rate.Among them,the primary obstacle factor is the per capita daily domestic water consumption,the second is the power consumption of 10000 yuan GDP,and the third is the population density.It shows that Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration has less water resources,imperfect industrial structure adjustment,and insufficient attention to science technology and scientific technological innovation.（4）Recommendations.Aiming at the problem of small amount of water resources,we can improve the supply and utilization level of water resources.We can start from three aspects:using diversion projects to transfer water across regions,building water conservancy projects and strengthening the economical and intensive utilization of water resources.In view of the imperfect adjustment of industrial structure,we can further adjust the industrial structure and deepen green development.In view of the insufficient attention to technology and innovation,we can increase scientific investment and improve the level of scientific innovation.