| Land space is the foundation for the existence of human society and everything.With the continuous progress of urbanization and new rural construction,the contradiction between the diversity of human needs and the limited space resources is deepening,which has an important impact on the adjustment of land spatial structure and the overall economic development.Rational development and effective utilization of land spatial resources is the premise of sustainable development of regional society,economy and ecosystem.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to identify regions with high level of spatial conflict and alleviate the contradiction of spatial conflict for relevant departments to plan land spatial resources in the future.Taking Markit County as the research area,this paper constructs a spatial classification system according to the dominant function of land use,and divides the land spatial resources into urban space,agricultural space and ecological space;Combined with GIS spatial analysis and dynamic degree analysis,the spatial and temporal pattern change characteristics of various types of space from 2009 to 2019 were analyzed;Select slope,water system,traffic,population,economic factors to explore the law of all kinds of spatial distribution;Based on the landscape ecological index,the spatial conflict model was constructed to analyze the spatial conflict level of the study area in 2009,2014 and 2019,and to explore the layout characteristics of different levels of conflict intensity;Finally,based on the MCE-CAMarkov model,this paper predicts various spatial layouts in 2024,analyzes their layout characteristics and conflict intensity changes,and puts forward suggestions.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2009 to 2019,the three types of space in Markit county are mainly agricultural space with increasing area year by year,which runs through the whole region,followed by ecological space with decreasing area year by year,which is distributed in Yeerqiang River Basin and surrounding areas.With the social and economic development,the disorderly expansion of urban space and rural living space gradually encroaches on agricultural production space and ecological space,resulting in the imbalance of land spatial pattern.(2)The buffer zone of slope factors shows that all kinds of spaces are distributed in different slope grades according to their own characteristics,and the human activity intensity is high in low slope areas;The buffer zone of water system factors shows that the green ecological space is inversely proportional to the distance of water system,the urban space and rural living space are directly proportional to the distance of water system,and the area of agricultural production space decreases with the increase of the distance of water system;The buffer zone of traffic factors shows that the closer the buffer zone is to the space with strong correlation with human activities.The continuous growth of population and the improvement of urbanization indirectly promote the change of all kinds of spatial layout.(3)From 2009 to 2019,the intensity of three types of spatial conflicts in Markit county increased significantly,and the evaluation units of moderate spatial conflicts and above increased year by year.The moderate spatial conflicts are mainly distributed in the central and southwest plain area,the northwest hilly area and the eastern ecological space area,while the higher spatial conflicts are concentrated in Kurma Township,tumantale Township,yangtak Township and other areas with intensive human activities.(4)Based on MCE-CA-Markov model,the prediction accuracy of three types of space in 2019 is high,and the representation model can be used to simulate three types of space in 2024.The results show that the urban space and rural living space in 2024 show an expanding trend,while the other three space types decrease in varying degrees,and the main spatial conflicts are medium and high spatial conflicts. |
PDF Full Text Request