| In the context of highly developed urbanization and industrialization,people continue to increase the intensity of the development and utilization of space resources,which intensifies the spatial contradiction between various land use methods.The contradictions in my country's ecological use of space,production and use of space,and living use of space are becoming more and more prominent.The development of the national land space pattern and the sustainable development of ecology are hindered,and how to alleviate the contradictions in land space utilization has become an urgent problem to be solved..Contradictions on the existing.This article takes the ecologically fragile area on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain in Xinjiang-Jinghe County as the research area.Based on the function of land use,the land use space is divided into living production space,production ecological space,ecological production space and ecological space.Based on the theory of landscape ecology,Construct a spatial conflict measurement model,a spatial change analysis model,and an ecological risk model,and use density analysis and standard deviation ellipses to study the Production-living-ecological space conflicts in Jinghe County in 1990,2000,2010,and2020,and are based on the FLUS model Simulate and predict the future conflicts of Production-living-ecological space,and explore the future development trend of conflicts.The main findings are as follows:(1)Based on the analysis of the spatial distribution pattern of Production-living-ecological,the ecological space accounted for more than 78.6% of the total area of Jinghe County,which is the most widely distributed space type in Jinghe County.During the period of 30 years,the four types of spaces showed the characteristics of "two ups,one down and one fluctuation".Among them,the proportion of living and production space and production ecological space increased by 0.45% and9.14% respectively;the fluctuation of ecological production space area increased by0.07%;the proportion of ecological space area decreased by 9.67%,mostly occupied by the other three types of space development.(2)Calculate the three-generation spatial conflict index for the four periods of 1990,2000,2010,and 2020,and analyze its changing characteristics.From 1990 to 2020,more than 50% of the distribution of spatial conflicts in the study area were weak spatial conflicts and weaker spatial conflicts.From 1990 to 2000,the proportion of its total area decreased sharply from 57.01% to 50.45%,and increased to 52.38 by 2020.%.In addition,strong spatial conflicts are a potential source of strong spatial conflicts,which affect the ecological security of Production-living-ecological Space.During the entire study period,it first increased and then decreased,first increasing from 15.35% in 1990 to 16.88% in 2010,and then decreasing to 14.09% in 2020.(3)Through the analysis of the conflict intensity composition of different spaces,the life-production space conflict index is between 0.739-0.798 during 30 years,which is a strong and strong spatial conflict level;the production ecological space conflict index is reduced from 0.751 to 0.657,and the spatial conflict level is reduced from0.739 to 0.798.From stronger to weaker;the ecological production space conflict index is between 0.613 and 0.663,reflecting the weaker spatial conflict level;the ecological space conflict index fluctuates between 0.713 and 0.681,which belongs to the medium spatial conflict level.(4)Based on the above research on the distribution and quantity of Production-living-ecological space spatial conflict index,this paper analyzes the density and change direction characteristics of spatial conflict change.Among them,the nuclear density of the Production-living-ecological space conflict in the study area from 1990 to2020 will be changed from Jinghe Town as the center and Dongdujing in the south in1990 to the central and western towns and the tourist attractions of Mount Broconu in the south in 2020.Correspondingly,the standard deviation ellipse of Production-living-ecological space spatial conflict change shows that the spatial conflict change in the study area shifts from northeast to southwest.(5)According to the study of ecological risk of Production-living-ecological space,the ecological space shows high ecological risk,and Ebinur Lake area and production space show low ecological risk.The bivariate autocorrelation analysis of the Production-living-ecological space conflict and the Production-living-ecological space ecological risk shows that low-high and high-low agglomerations have the widest distribution area;high-high agglomerations only appear in 2020;low-low agglomerations mainly appear in Ebinur Lake area and production ecological space.The space shown as weak spatial conflict still cannot ignore its potential ecological risks.(6)Use the FLUS model to simulate the future land use distribution in Jinghe County,calculate the Kappa coefficient for accuracy verification,and show that the overall accuracy is over 80%,and the model has good applicability for land use simulation in the study area.According to different scenarios,the land use situation in2030 is simulated and predicted,and the distribution pattern of the Production-living-ecological space conflict in the future study area is calculated.The results show that the Production-living-ecological space composite index under the three scenarios fluctuates in the range of 0.645-0.677.On the whole,there is a relatively weak level of spatial conflict under the historical development trend scenario and the strict protection scenario,and a medium spatial conflict under the general protection scenario.(7)The bivariate autocorrelation analysis of the Production-living-ecological space conflict and the degree of land use shows: high-high aggregation occurs at the junction of cultivated land and construction land and the junction of forest and grassland in the southern mountainous area.The distribution area shows a shrinking trend within 30years;low-low aggregation Mainly in the marginal areas of Jinghe County's administrative divisions.The principal component analysis of 9 influencing factors and Production-living-ecological space conflicts shows that DEM and slope are negative influencing factors of spatial conflicts,and roads,population,and GDP are positive influencing factors of spatial conflicts. |
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