Research On Virus And Rumor Spreading Model Based On COVID-19

The 2019 novel coronavirus disease(COVID-19)outbreak has become a worldwide problem.Due to the development of economic globalization and the increase of international tourists,many countries are still facing the impact of the epidemic.In order to get rid of the trouble caused by the epidemic as soon as possible and deeply understand the evolution mechanism and epidemic trend of novel coronavirus in the real world,this paper uses complex network theory,differential dynamical system and mean field theory,a virus spreading model based on COVID-19 is constructed,and the influence of individual behavior(such as individual quarantine behavior and migration behavior,etc.)on virus transmission is studied by Monte Carlo simulation.In addition,large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases often lead to the emergence and outbreak of online rumors.Therefore,discussing the interactive spreading process of rumor information and rumor-refuting information on social networks,and simultaneously considering the changes of individual behavior(such as the change of individual activity,etc.),this paper proposes a new rumor spreading model.Through the analysis of its dynamic characteristics of information dissemination(such as transmission threshold,transmission speed and scale,etc.),we can better control the spread of rumor information on social networks.The main work and innovation of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the transmission characteristics of novel coronavirus(such as infection ability,incubation period,etc.)and individual behaviors(such as quarantine behavior,personnel mobility,etc.)in the real world,a SEIQRS epidemic spreading model based on COVID-19 is established.By analyzing the relationship between the effective basic reproduction number R_0,effand the model parameters,the parameter interval of the key factors to control the epidemic outbreak was obtained.Theoretical and simulation results show that when there are still a small number of un-quarantined infected people in society,once the movement of people is no longer restricted,the epidemic will break out rapidly again.In addition,some conclusions about the influence of network characteristics and key nodes on the spread of the virus have also been obtained.(2)On the basis of the above epidemic spreading model,the Canadian COVID-19 epidemic data are used to fit the parameters of the model,and the local transmission trend of novel coronavirus is predicted and analyzed.Then a risk area evaluation method is proposed by combining the predicted data with the real data.As a result,the calculated effective basic reproduction numberR_0,eff,quarantine probability q and transmission risk index(?)_ican be used as comprehensive indicators of the effectiveness of local government in controlling the epidemic.(3)Large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases often lead to the outbreak of Internet rumors.Considering that the activity of the individual on the social platform will be different when the rumor spreads on the social network,and the relevant information of refuting the rumor will also appear,in this paper,a SIw Is R-M rumor spreading model considering individual activity and refutation mechanism simultaneously is proposed.Equilibrium points and basic reproduction number of the model are calculated,and the local stability and global stability conditions of the system in four equilibrium states are obtained via using Routh-Hurwitz criterion and Poincare-Bendixson theorem.The simulation results demonstrate that the decay rate?only affects the change of the rumor spreader's activity and has minimal effect on the final size.However,the strengthening of government or authoritative media'rumor refuting strength?can effectively reduce the peak value of rumor spreaders and the duration of rumors.