Study On Agricultural Drought Vulnerability And Adaptation Model At Township Scale

Drought is the most widespread and damaging natural disaster to agriculture in the world.In the context of global warming,drought poses a serious threat to agricultural development and farmers' livelihoods,so it is important to conduct targeted agricultural drought vulnerability studies and construct drought-adapted agricultural models to promote regional sustainable development.Xingtai County,the study area of this paper,is located in the southern part of Hebei Province and has three different types of agro-ecological units: mountainous,hilly and plain.Under the warm-temperate climate,water resources are unevenly distributed in time and space,and the degree of satisfying the growing needs of crops is poor,and droughts occur frequently and threaten people's production and life.According to the theory of regional disaster system,disaster is the product of the combined effect of disaster-preventing environment,disaster-bearing body and disaster-causing factors.In the absence of changing the environment and the causative factors,reducing the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body becomes the key to disaster reduction.In this paper,taking Xingtai County as an example,a township-scale agricultural drought vulnerability evaluation index system based on the VSD(Vulnerability Scoping Diagram)evaluation framework is constructed,a comprehensive weighted summation model is used to calculate the vulnerability index,and K-means clustering is used to classify the vulnerability levels and expressed through Arc GIS software to evaluate the vulnerability of Xingtai County from 2000-2018 The agricultural drought vulnerability of each township was evaluated.The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of vulnerability were analyzed.Factor correlation analysis of vulnerability influencing factors was carried out using a geographic probe model.The mountainous township Jijiacun Township,the hilly township Taizijing Township and the plain township Huining Township,which had significant dynamic changes in vulnerability,were selected as typical areas,and the adaptation process of their agricultural production patterns to drought was analyzed separately,and the following conclusions were drawn.(1)From 2000 to 2018,the agricultural drought vulnerability index of each township in Xingtai County ranged from 0.1624 to 0.6364.The vulnerability was classified into five levels of high,high,medium,low and low vulnerability according to the aggregation of the index value distribution.From 2000 to 2018,the vulnerability index generally showed a decreasing trend in all communes.In the heavy drought years,the degree of vulnerability showed an overall high level,but with significant differences between townships.The townships with high vulnerability index are mainly located in the central hilly area of Taizijing Township and Longquansi Township;the townships with medium vulnerability index are mainly located in the western mountainous area of Baian Township,Baishui Township and Jiacun Township,where the land use structure has changed a lot and the forestry and fruit industry is relatively concentrated.The townships with low vulnerability index are located in the eastern plain area in the townships with more developed suburban economies such as Huining Township,Nanshimen Township and Yangfan Township.The degree of vulnerability of the townships in the eastern plain area was relatively stable until 2015,after which the degree of vulnerability decreased significantly.(2)The analysis of the geographic probe model concluded that the ratio of wheat cultivation area,the increase of forestry and fruit industry in the land use structure,the per capita income of farmers,the irrigation index and the proportion of non-farm income are the main factors affecting the change of agricultural drought vulnerability.(3)Comparing the land use remote sensing image interpretation in 2000 and2018,combined with field interviews and research with farmers,it is concluded that the changes in agricultural patterns in different agroecological type zones in Xingtai County,including the decrease in wheat cultivation area,the increase in forest land area,and the increase in non-farm income,do play an important role in the changes of agricultural drought vulnerability.(4)Based on the characteristics of vulnerability change,Jijiacun Township in the mountainous area,Taizijing Township in the hills and Huining Township in the plain were selected as typical towns and villages for near-line analysis.The economic adaptability of different agricultural patterns from the perspective of agricultural input and output was analyzed,and it was concluded that the "wheat-corn" cropping pattern has a high water demand and a mismatch between water demand and precipitation,which is prone to drought.We concluded that under the "wheat-corn" cropping pattern,the water demand is high,and the mismatch between water demand and precipitation is very prone to drought.(5)Through the analysis,three township models were constructed to reduce agricultural drought vulnerability.One is the "fruit and grain model" of "dry and fresh fruits and supplemented by corn" in Jijia village in mountainous areas;the second is the "grain industry model" of "corn mainly and miscellaneous grains and sour dates are added to go out to earn non-agricultural income" in Taizijing Township in hilly areas;and the third is the "industrial and agricultural" model of "non-agricultural workers and planting in parallel" in Huining Town,a township in the suburbs of the plain.These three typical models in the mountains,hills,and plains are better adapted to the drought environment,effectively reducing exposure to drought,reducing sensitivity,improving ecology,and increasing economic returns.It plays a role in reducing agricultural drought vulnerability,mitigating drought risk,and maintaining sustainable regional development.