The Impact Of Slumping Oil Price On The Situation Of Tanker Shipping Along The Maritime Silk Road

The "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" is an important channel for promoting the smooth flow of trade between Asia and Europe,and it’s also an emerging trade path for China to connect with the world.As MSR coverage continues to expand,nearly 70%of the world’s maritime crude oil transportation is dependent on the Maritime Silk Road.In-depth understanding of the relationship between crude oil shipping trade and oil prices,and explore the short-term impact of slumping oil price on the oil tanker shipping situation along the MSR,which is of great significance in the formulation of shipping strategy,shipping emergency,port investment and other aspects.Taking the oil price slumped in 2014 as an example,based on the AIS trajectory data,the lagging relationship between the monthly ship and the oil price is established by the Auto-regressive Distribution Lag model.From the perspective of import,export and transshipment,the distribution structure of the cargo flow before and after the oil price slumped is constructed separately,so as to explore the changing law of the oil tanker shipping situation.The study found that:1)There is a significant negative correlation between tanker ship frequencies and oil price,and the correlation between maritime export cargo flow situation is higher than that of import cargo flow situation.2)The oil tanker situation of overall MSR is delayed by the impact of oil price slumped,and the lag period is 3 months.3)From the perspective of the MSR along the zoning,Europe and North Asia,East Asia,sub-Saharan Africa,Oceania have a strong lag effect,and the lag effect in Southeast Asia,West Asia,North Africa and South Asia is weak.4)After the oil price slumped,the tanker cargo flow increased less during the crude oil export stage,and the increase in the crude oil shipping trade after the transfer period was larger.The research results of this paper can provide a scientific basis for improving the decision-making ability of the crude oil shipping market and formulating maritime emergency measures.