Robust Supply Chain Network Design And Application Under Uncertain Cost And Demand

Faced with frequent changes of demand,coupled with the acceleration of globalization,enterprises gradually separate from the existence of individuals and become members of the supply chain.The future competition pattern will change from the competition between the enterprise and the enterprise to the competition between the supply chain and the supply chain.And a good supply chain network structure is an important strategic ability for enterprises to take advantage in the fierce competition.However,with the complex changes of social environment,supply chain network design and operation are faced with more uncertainties and risks.Therefore,designing a supply chain network structure that can effectively deal with uncertain disturbances is crucial to the long-term stable development of enterprises.Based on this,this paper studies a four-level supply chain network structure consisting of suppliers,plants,distribution centers and customer zones.Considering the uncertainty of future cost and customer demand,and the uncertainty is described by the method of scenario tree and interval analysis.Further,from the medium and long term angle of the enterprises,this paper considers capacity constraints such as supplier supply,plant production,distribution center handling,plant storage and distribution center storage.At the same time,this paper considers the node balance,inventory level,minimum inventory and demand constraints.Aiming at minimizing total cost,based on p-robust and min-max criterion respectively,the design model of supply chain network is established.Finally,the validity of the model is verified by the example of a real enterprise.The main contents of this paper incorporate the following aspects:(1)The study of supply chain uncertainty modeling and robust modeling criteria.In the aspect of uncertainty,this paper mainly considers the future cost and customer demand.In particular,from a realistic perspective the probability of uncertain factors with known and unknown are both considered.When the probability is known,the possible cost and customer demand are divided into different discrete scenarios respectively.The scenario tree method is used to describe the uncertainty modeling.Then,the scenario combinations and their probabilities in multi period can be obttained.When the probability is unknown,the interval analysis method is used to model the uncertainty modeling.And both p-robust and min-max robust modeling criteria are adopted to deal with the influence of uncertain disturbances.(2)The scenario tree method is used to describe the uncertainty of future cost and customer demand on the basis of the above research.Then basic supply chain network design model,cost minimization model of single scenario,expected cost minimization model and the model based on p-robust are established.And the solution of upper and lower bounds of p is given,it is convenient for decision makers to choose the proper supply chain network structure through tradeoff between risk and cost.Furthermore,the expected value of perfect information(EVPI)is solved,and the advantage of the robust optimization method in dealing with the uncertain disturbances is illustrated by the analysis further.(3)The basic model of supply chain network design is established firstly,then interval analysis is used to model the uncertain future cost and customer demand.Based on this,this paper establishes a robust optimization model of supply chain network design and adjusts the range of uncertain cost and demand,as well as compares the operation strategy and operation efficiency of robust model.Then a supply chain network structure that can best cope with uncertain disturbances is designed.(4)Based on the research of(2)and(3),R enterprise is taken as a practical case,and GAMS 24.7.1 is used to solve the model.Then supply chain network structure as well as production,logistics,inventory control and other related operational plans are given based on different robust optimization methods.And decision support is provided for decision makers.This paper studies the design of supply chain network under uncertainty.The strategic layer is decided at the initial stage of the planning cycle through the model build.Based on this,the tactical layer is made according to the information about uncertainty.The research shows that the established supply chain network design model based on the method of robust can effectively deal with uncertain disturbances,it can also provide decision support to decision-makers from the aspects of system design,production,processing,warehousing,transportation and distribution.