Study On The Estimation Of Installation Period For Offshore Platform Based On Monte Carlo Simulation

Offshore platform is a kind of common engineering facility for human development and utilization of marine resources.The complex and ever-changing marine environmental conditions bring uncertainty to the construction of the offshore platform.Although the advancement of science and technology has rapidly improved the level of offshore engineering equipment,humans still cannot fully overcome the forces of nature,especially in the installation of offshore platforms under severe sea conditions.Offshore installation is difficult and the construction risk is high,which has caused great difficulty to estimate the project period.In order to solve this problem,this thesis takes the jacket platform as the research object,identifies the work scope,process and characteristics of offshore installation based on the network planning method.Based on the theory of constraint,the factors affecting the offshore installation period are identified and improvement measures are proposed.Focusing on the composition of the activity duration and the probability distribution,this thesis introduces the method of estimating the probability distribution of activity duration based on environmental constraints.Through the quantitative analysis of historical environmental data,the prior distribution of the platform installation activity duration is obtained,the network map plan is imported,and the Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the construction period of the offshore platform installation project.Finally,taking the example of a potential oil & gas field development project H in D Sea,the environmental permit conditions were determined through the design of the construction program,and the historical distribution of the weather window was obtained from the historical environmental data,thus clarifying the probability distribution of the duration for the float-over installation activity.The installation period distribution situation was finally estimated by the Monte Carlo simulation method;it has better adaptability than traditional quota method and has practical significance to the estimation of future offshore platform installation period.