Study On Evaluation Method Of Coal Mine Spontaneous Combustion Risk Based On Catastrophe Theory

For a long time,coal spontaneous combustion has posed a great threat to the safety production of coal mining enterprises in China.In order to prevent spontaneous combustion accidents effectively,it is imperative to evaluate the risk of coal spontaneous combustion scientifically and reasonably.Therefore,this paper uses the combination weight and catastrophe theory to conduct a systematic and in-depth study on the evaluation method of coal spontaneous combustion risk.Firstly,on the basis of analyzing the characteristics and mechanism of coal spontaneous combustion,the case of coal spontaneous combustion accident is analyzed.Based on the theoretical analysis of accident causes and the study of safety system engineering,a model of coal spontaneous combustion accident causes is proposed.The evaluation index system of three-layer coal spontaneous combustion risk is constructed.The first-level indexes include technical factors,coal seam factors,safety management factors,personnel factors and fire handling capacity.After that,a scientific and effective evaluation method of coal spontaneous combustion risk is studied and put forward.Applying the analytic hierarchy process to assign the subjective weight of the index.Then,the objective weight of the index is assigned by the method of entropy.The Euclidean distance function is introduced to construct an optimal decision model,which makes the two weights consistent with the preference coefficients.Better combination weights can be obtained.Avoid the problem that traditional single weight allocation is too absolute.In order to determine the weight of evaluation index of coal spontaneous combustion risk reasonably.By analyzing the hypothesis,mutation form,bifurcation equation and normalization of catastrophe evaluation method,an evaluation model based on catastrophe theory is established.The evaluation steps of the evaluation model are defined,and the expression and analysis method of the evaluation results of coal spontaneous combustion risk are put forward.The catastrophe level of spontaneous combustion risk is calculated and analyzed to determine the catastrophe level of spontaneous combustion risk.The fire risk assessment of a mine in Shanxi Province was carried out by using the method of coal spontaneous combustion risk assessment.The evaluation results show that the natural ignition risk grade of the coal mine is "relatively safe",which is consistent with the actual situation of the mine.After determining the dangerous grade of spontaneous combustion,the existing problems are pointed out and the corresponding corrective measures are put forward.