Research On The Risk Measurement And Control Strategy Of China’s Industrial Overcapacity Based On Data Driven Method

Influenced by the slowdown of economic growth and conversion of new and old kinetic energy,China is encountering many serious problems.One of them is industry overcapacity with large scale,wide range,long cycle and deep impact.It not only increases the economic and social risks,but also hinders the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and the improvement of economic development quality.Although in recent years,the government has issued a series of overcapacity governance documents but the phenomena of overcapacity still happens from time to time.The failure of overcapacity governance highlights the disadvantages of the existing mechanism,and the incomplete decision information is the main reason.It is an important foundation for prevention and control of overcapacity to monitor overcapacity and grasp the evolution law and driving mechanism of it.Therefore,it is urgent to carry out the research on the risk evaluation system of industry overcapacity.Based on the principles of systematicness,accuracy and pertinence,this paper makes theoretical and empirical research on three levels: the construction of index system,the establishment of measurement model and the analysis of regulation strategy.First,from the perspective of industrial association,considering the basic aspects,supply,demand and performance of the target industry and its upstream,downstream,competitive and complementary industries,the paper constructs a systematic index system for evaluating industrial overcapacity risk.Secondly,a new evaluation model based on CFS-ARS-DEA(Correlation-based Feature Selection-Association Rules-Data Envelopment Analysis)is proposed by using data driven modeling.The redundancy and computational complexity of the index are reduced by the CFS algorithm;the strong correlation between indicators is mined by the ARs algorithm;the DEA optimization weighting model is used to automatically weighting each index,which reduces the uncertainty brought by prior knowledge.Then,through the empirical research and robust analysis of the coal industry and coal power industry in China,the accuracy and reliability of the proposed model are tested,and the evolution law and driving mechanism of overcapacity risk in the two industries are revealed by association analysis.Finally,this paper proposes the differentiated industrial overcapacity control strategy based on the characteristics identification,regulation strategy formulation and improvement of safeguard measures.Then the paper takes the coal industry in China as an example to carry out empirical research.The results show that:(1)the index system and model of industrial overcapacity risk evaluation based on data driven model and industrial association perspective have obvious advantages.The index system effectively considers the system,completeness and accuracy,and the CFS-ARs-DEA combination evaluation model starts from the data facts,which is helpful to improve the scientific results of the risk evaluation of industrial overcapacity.In addition,the robustness test also proves the reliability of the model and the robustness of the measurement results.The model provides a scientific quantitative tool for accurately identifying the risk level of industrial overcapacity and monitoring the trend of overcapacity.(2)The excess capacity risk of China’s coal industry and coal power industry has shown a cyclical fluctuation law of "decline-rise-decline" between 2008 and 2017.Although the level of overcapacity risk in recent years has been declining slowly,it is still at a high level.The difference is that the risk fluctuation of excess capacity in coal power industry is relatively strong.Therefore,the governance of industrial overcapacity in China can not be ignored.(3)From the perspective of the environmental benefits of related industries,the constraints of environmental regulation in the upstream and downstream industries of coal power industry will aggravate the degree of overcapacity,while the impact of environmental regulations on the overcapacity of coal industry varies from one direction to another.(4)From the perspective of the basic influence of related industries,the increase of industrial concentration in the upstream industry and the increase of capital density of downstream industry will increase the risk of overcapacity of coal power industry.The improvement of industrial concentration,marketization level and employment elasticity of downstream industry can effectively inhibit the overcapacity of coal power industry.Moreover,the improvement of the opening-up of downstream industries will also help reduce the risk of excess capacity in the coal industry.(5)Through the empirical analysis of regulation strategy,the coal industry should adopt the strategy of merger and reorganization to control the capacity.This is because of the weak competitiveness of the coal industry in China,the lack of industry development prospects and high exit barriers.In the process of implementing the strategy of merger and reorganization,the government should also pay attention to improve the supporting measures of coal overcapacity regulation.There are 19 figures,9 tables and 132 references in this paper.