Research On Maintenance Strategy Based On Remaining Life Prediction Of Submarine Corroded Pipelines

Similarly as the principle conduit of seaward oil furthermore gas transportation,submarine pipeline assumes a especially paramount part in the advancement of seaward oil and gas assets.Corrosion is an important reason for the thinning or even cracking of the pipe wall,so the service time of the pipe is shortened.The remaining life prediction of pipeline could forestall pipeline disappointment created by erosion,and upkeep might reasonably prolong those administration run through for pipeline also decrease those disappointment rate for pipeline.In this paper,under the condition for different erosion disappointment information about submarine pipeline,the remaining term an aggregation about pipeline will be predicted as stated by those stochastic procedure hypothesis and dependability hypothesis.On the basis of the remaining life prediction of pipeline,considering the corrosion depth and maintenance effect of pipeline,the maintenance optimization model is established and different maintenance strategies are formulated,which can provide reference for pipeline enterprise managers to judge the operation of pipeline and make maintenance decisions theoretical support.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)In place with tackle the issue from foreseeing the remaining existence for submarine consumed pipeline,What's more,realize the optimal maintenance expense under the condition for little example measure and scanty corruption information,a maintenance strategy based on the remaining life prediction of pipeline considering corrosion depth is proposed.The data of pipeline corrosion degradation are obtained through temperature and pressure accelerated degradation experiments.The gamma process and accelerated degradation model are used to describe the pipeline degradation process,predict the residual life and reflect the relationship between the average life and stress.The maximum likelihood method may be applied to take stock of the model parameters in general.Recognizing the erosion depth,the repairing choice model for the least anticipated expense rate,similarly as the objective is made the ideal for upkeep times,furthermore,ECR need minimum.(2)When it is difficult to determine the deterioration distribution of submarine corroded pipelines,for the sake of forecasting the pipeline remaining term and formulating a practical maintenance plan,a maintenance strategy based on the pipeline remaining life prediction under complete maintenance is proposed.Use the clear life distribution of submarine corroded pipelines to predict the average remaining life of the pipeline based on reliability theory;use the prediction result of the remaining life of the pipeline as the pipeline repair failure threshold,consider the complete maintenance effect,and based on the updated compensation theory,calculate the remaining life and maintenance cost of the pipeline carry out overall optimization,establish submarine corrosion pipeline maintenance model;use immune particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the optimization plan,determine the best maintenance threshold,cycle and expected cost rate(ECR).(3)In place to anticipate the remaining term from submarine pipeline,What's more,tackle the issues about incessant malfunction and asset waste brought on by nonsensical upkeep plan,a upkeep method dependent upon remaining term prediction of pipeline under inadequate upkeep will be suggested.Using the statistical data of pipeline failure to fit the distribution of pipeline life,the remaining term work will be determined,furthermore,its lingering existence quality will be calculated;the parameters about pipeline disappointment dissemination are evaluated eventually perusing utilizing the any rate as square strategy;the relapse element about administration term may be used to reflect those corruption methodology previously,then following inadequate support.,and an multi-objective joint streamlining upkeep model may be made dependent upon the demand for dependability and needed cosset rate for limited life taking the base erosion pipeline similarly as a sample,the expected cost rate,reliability,maintenance cycle and the change with the number of preventive maintenance are studied,and the maintenance strategy is formulated.