Risk Assessment And Maintenance Strategy Study Of Submarine Pipeline Leakage

Oil and natural gas are essential fossil energy in China's industrial production process,and play a vital role in promoting the implementation of energy strategy.However,because the submarine pipeline is buried deep in the seafloor for many years,it has the characteristics of high risk of leakage and high maintenance cost in the later stage,the pipeline safety problem has gradually become the focus of social attention.Therefore,it is very important to carry out in-depth and comprehensive analysis around the risk of leakage of submarine pipeline,to estimate the application status of submarine pipeline and to find out the risk factors of leakage in time.Based on this,this paper from different levels,different dimensions of the current commonly used submarine pipeline maintenance methods,risk assessment methods,etc.have been discussed in detail and differential analysis,and as an important basis,At the same time,according to the results of data analysis to carry out related research and demonstration work as follows:(1)An overview of the basic theory of the risk of submarine pipeline leakage,combined with the basic theory of submarine pipeline risk concept,composition and its acceptable criteria,in view of the lack of analysis of the traditional method of importance,the use of fish bone mapping to analyze the various indicators affecting the safety of the submarine pipeline,and then combined with specific analysis,around the submarine pipeline leakage factors to carry out feature selection,find out the main factors causing serious impact on pipeline leakage,and finally according to the degree of impact classification,the establishment of submarine pipeline risk evaluation index system.(2)The establishment of a risk assessment model for submarine oil and gas pipeline leakage,introduced the basic principles and theoretical characteristics of the analysis method,discussed how to determine the correlation between the impact indicators of the submarine pipeline,constructed the subsea pipeline risk assessment model for the analysis,used the improved particle group algorithm to determine the comprehensive weight of each indicator factor,and,on the basis of the analysis of the submarine pipeline risk evaluation,the raw data of the set analysis will be standardized as LS-SVM training samples and test samples.The MPSO-LSSVM model test is then completed.At the same time,from different dimensions and different levels,it is compared with the BP neural network model and The PSO-LSSVM model,and the analysis results show that the model built in this paper has high predictive accuracy.(3)Based on the results of the submarine pipeline risk assessment,the research model of submarine pipeline maintenance cost strategy is established,the test cost of submarine pipeline is used to analyze the detection cost,maintenance cost and failure cost during the operation of the submarine pipeline,the optimal scheme is given,and the reference is provided for the subsequent submarine pipeline leakage accident.Due to the limited environmental conditions of the seafloor,there are still shortcomings in this paper,the comprehensive consideration of a series of factors that induce the leakage of the submarine pipeline will be the main research direction and research focus in the future.