Quantitative Risk Assessment Of Gas Pipelines In Densely Populated Areas

This article focuses on quantitative risk assessment of gas pipelines in densely populated areas,including the probability of failure of oil and gas pipelines in densely populated areas,the scope of accident impact,and quantitative analysis of personal risks.The main contents and research results are as follows:(1)Based on the historical failure database of oil and gas pipelines,statistically analyze the failure data of oil and gas pipelines,classify and calculate the basic failure probability of oil and gas pipelines,and obtain the pipeline failure probability in densely populated areas,which lays the foundation for quantifying the risk of gas pipeline failure.(2)Establish a scene model of natural gas pipeline leakage in a densely populated area,and analyze the impact of a full-diameter rupture of the natural gas pipeline on nearby buildings.The results showed that the leaked natural gas formed an upward injection of gas columns,and part of the natural gas entered the interior of the building under the influence of the wind,causing an explosion and serious fire in the building.(3)The influence range and laws of fire and explosion accidents caused by natural gas leakage under different working conditions are studied.The results show that the influence range of fire heat radiation and explosion shock wave overpressure are closely related to pipeline pressure,pipe diameter,wind speed and other parameters.Under the same conditions,the death radius of jet fire heat radiation is much larger than that of explosion shock wave overpressure.(4)Introduce the risk acceptance standard,and calculate the personal risk of jet fire accidents in gas pipelines in densely populated areas.The safe distances corresponding to the individual allowable risks of natural gas pipeline jet fire under different working conditions at<1×10^-6 and<3×10^-7 were obtained.