A Study On Chinese Natural Gas External Dependence Based On System Dynamics Model

With the completion of Chinese 13 th Five-Year Plan and the development of low-carbon energy,natural gas demand has grown rapidly,but the growth rate of production has fallen short of expectations,so Natural Gas External Dependence reached 46.93% in 2018.Therefore,it is of great practical and theoretical significance to analyze the evolution trend of natural gas in China and find an effective way to reduce the dependence of natural gas.This paper first divides natural gas producers and consumers into four categories based on net natural gas imports and foreign dependence,and then selects four typical countries to analyze in detail the development trend of natural gas dependence on foreign gas and natural gas policy measures.Japan has reduced the energy intensity to make it the country with the lowest energy consumption per unit output;Germany has learned the lessons of the world oil crisis in 1997,so diversified energy development has become its core policy;the United States passed the shale gas revolution to become a net exporter of natural gas.Therefore,the important policies of these three countries which are the proportion of natural gas,energy intensity,and growth of shale gas production,have become the focus of this study and the basis of empirical analysis.Secondly,the scenario simulation was established by establishing a dynamic model of natural gas supply and demand system.The scenario simulation based on the proportion of natural gas,energy intensity,and shale gas production confirmed once again that the reduction of energy intensity,reasonable proportion of natural gas consumption,and unconventional natural gas production are very effective measure to reduce China's natural gas dependence on foreign countries.Finally,this paper uses a model to predict the future trend of China 's natural gas external dependence.It is found that as China 's 13 th Five-Year Plan approaches,China 's natural gas external dependence will increase significantly,and then in the next ten years maintained between 45% and 50%,and also analyzed the reasons for the increase in China's natural gas dependence from the perspective of the industrial chain:imported gas sources are not abundant,unconventional natural gas mining technologies such as shale gas are backward,and although gas pipeline networks and storage gas facilities have increased,the gap is still significant compared with developed countries such as the United States;the implementation of industrial policies such as coal-to-gas,natural gas power generation,and new energy vehicles has further increased natural gas demand,and these factors will make China's natural gas dependence on foreign countries rise and bring risks to China's natural gas energy security.In response to the above conclusions,the following policy suggestions are proposed:(1)formulate a reasonable natural gas development plan,such as a reasonable natural gas consumption ratio(2)continue to increase energy conservation and emission reduction policies,reduce energy intensity(3)increase unconventional natural gas extraction especially the intensity of shale gas extraction(4)Improve the natural gas production,supply,storage and marketing system...