The Influencing Factors Of China's Gasoline Demand And Prediction Of Future Consumption

Oil is a strategic resource related to national prosperity.Oil has a very important impact on China's economic development and national defense security.For China,whose external oil dependence is as high as 72.3%,in order to guarantee national defense security and meet the energy demand of all sectors,the government should make a scientific plan for the supply and demand of energy security,in which the prediction of gasoline consumption is one of the basic tasks.This paper selected gasoline consumption and related influencing factors from 2000 to 2018,and established PCA-Logistic model,grey model and grey-BP combination model.Finally,the prediction effects of models were compared and evaluated.The results show that both from the calibration results and the error comparison results,compared with the other two models,grey-BP combination model has better prediction performance and advantages.Grey-BP combination model predicts that China's gasoline consumption is expected to reach a peak of 161.86 million tons in 2025.Combined with the analysis of main factors of gasoline consumption,since 2019,the growth rate of gasoline consumption has been sharply reduced,and it begins to enter a slow growth period.Technical progress in fuel vehicles,development of new energy vehicles and other factors will all have a negative impact on gasoline consumption.With the expansion of the fuel car market and the continuous extension of the transportation system,China's gasoline consumption will continue to rise in the next few years.Until 2025,gasoline consumption will continue to grow,but the growth rate will decline significantly.Gasoline consumption will peak before 2030.