| As an important basic energy,natural gas plays a key role on the rapid development of national economy.Our country is in the special period of energy low-carbon transformation and new normal of economic growth,and the factors affecting natural gas demand are complicated.So it is necessary to analyze the influencing factors,adjust the forecasting methods,make reasonable production plan,optimize the energy structure,and improve the situation of natural gas supply and demand.Firstly,in this paper the current demand forecasting methods and influencing factors of natural gas demand forecasting are summarized.Combined with the present situation of natural gas supply and demand,the factors affecting the demand of natural gas in our country are selected,and the key factors affecting the demand of natural gas are quantified by qualitative analysis of different influencing factors.Secondly,combined with the qualitative analysis about influencing factors,a new forecasting method about the demand forecast of natural gas is proposed with the purpose of improving the accuracy of the prediction about natural gas demand,which is based on grey equal dimension model and partial least squares regression(PLS)model.In this paper,considering the grey equal dimension model has a unique advantage in eliminating the noise and dealing with the uncertainty factors,the model is used to forecast the development trend of the factors.At the same time considering the prediction system has the characteristics of poor information and common linearity,the PLS model is used to analyze the data of natural gas consumption and its influencing factors in order to overcome the effect of multicollinearity on the predicted results.At last,the total natural gas demand of our country in 2016-2025 is forecasted,which is based on the logic of “current development status summary-analyzing the key factors qualitatively-fuzzy prediction of uncertain factors-integrated forecasting with multiple methods”. |
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