Analysis Of Coupling Effect Of Multiple Risk Factors In Petrochemical Tank Farm Accidents

With the rapid development of China's petrochemical industry,petrochemical storage tanks as the main energy storage device,the capacity of a single storage tank and the scale of the storage tank farms are becoming larger and larger,and the flammable and explosive dangerous chemicals stored in the storage tanks are further accumulated,the probability of accidents has risen sharply.The safety of petrochemical tank farms are affected by various risk factors such as management risk factors and environmental risk factors.These risk factors interact and couple with each other,resulting in the increase of the overall risk value of the tank farms and the occurrence of accidents.At present,there are relatively few studies on the coupling of safety risk factors in petrochemical tank farms,and there is insufficient research on the coupling relationship and coupling law between risk factors in petrochemical tank farm accidents.Based on this,from the perspective of risk coupling,this thesis constructs association rule model,N-K model and risk coupling network respectively,analyzes the coupling between risk factors in petrochemical tank farm accidents,and finds the coupling relationship between various risk factors,and excavate the coupling law.The main research contents of this thesis are as follows:Firstly,the danger of petrochemical products and the risk of petrochemical tank farm accidents are expounded.On this basis,the connotation characteristics of risk coupling of petrochemical tank farm accidents are analyzed,and the process of risk coupling is analyzed.Secondly,the accident reports of petrochemical tank farm are analyzed and the risk factors are extracted,and a data set of accident risk factors in petrochemical tank farm is obtained,use the association rule mining method to carry out association analysis on the data set,obtain 75 association rules,analyze the association rules with high support and high confidence,obtain the risk combination that needs to be focused on,visualize the association rules,clearly demonstrate the coupling relationship between various risk factors.Then,based on the collected case data,an N-K model is constructed to measure the degree of coupling among the four risk factors of human,machine,environment and manage that affect the safety of petrochemical tank farm,and the risk values corresponding to different risk coupling forms are obtained.The results show that the risk value generally increases with the increase of participating coupling factors,and the risk coupling forms with larger risk values are mostly related to human factors.Finally,a petrochemical tank farm accident risk coupling network is constructed based on the complex network,and the coupling effect of the risk coupling network is analyzed by using the statistical characteristics of the complex network,the important risk factors in the network are identified.The first five risk factors with the highest node degree and node betweenness are controlled respectively.By comparing the changes of the overall network characteristic indexes before and after risk control,it can be seen that controlling the risk factors with high node degree and high node betweenness can effectively block the coupling between the risk factors in the network,and the effect of risk control based on node degree is more obvious.