Analysis On Fire Explosion Accident Risk In Oil Storage Tank Area Based On Risk Coupling And Simulation Study

Oil Storage Tank area is a common work area in petrochemical corporation,oil and other substances stored in the oil storage tank are inflammable,explosive,volatile,electrostatic and diffusible,therefore the oil storage tank is prone to fire and explosion accidents which will cause serious casualties and property loss.Current risk assessment and risk management study on the oil storage tank area are carried out from the single factor angle instead of the risk coupling angle,and the fire explosion in the oil storage tank area is usually caused by the interaction and coupling among different risk factors.In order to prevent the fire explosion accident in the oil storage tank area,at the angle of risk coupling,the article studies the coupling characteristics of various risk factors which cause fire explosion in the tank area,so as to establish the coupling regularity of the tank area risk factors and realize the dynamic equilibrium of the oil storage tank area within risk threshold.(1)Through the analysis on a large numbers of domestic and overseas fire explosion accidents in oil storage tank area,the article studies different risk factors that cause the fire explosion in oil tank area,and researches the coupling relations among different risk factors from the angles of personnel risk factor,device risk element,environment risk factor and management risk factor,it also qualitatively analyzes the key risk factors based on the causal loop model established by the software vensim.(2)By establishing a N-K model which is based on complicated network,calculating the odds of different risk coupling forms,studying the change probabilities of single risk factor,double risk factor and multiple risk factor,the article finally obtains the coupling risk values of all the risk coupling modes of the fire explosions in oil tank area and analyzes the coupling form which has strong coupling characteristics.(3)The article studies a risk assessment method of fire explosion accident in oil storage tank area,based on risk coupling matrix,the method can obtain the risk weight and risk assessment level of the fire explosion accident in oil storage tank area at the coupling angle,and prove its feasibility at last by living examples.(4)The article obtains the weight of all risk indicators based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),evaluates the risk factors based on the backward cloud model,coordinates the risk evaluation forwards and backwards by combining the coordination relationship between the risk level and safety level;besides,it carries out simulation practice to the risk factor level of the fire explosion accident in the oil tank area by combining the obtained weight with the risk evaluation and basing on the system dynamic software Vensim,the stimulation lasts 24months to predict the changing trend of the risk factor level of the tank area in 24 months.