Growing CO₂ Emissions Of Small Developing Countries And Their Driving Forces

Paris Agreement proposed targets and requirements for global climate mitigation.Historically,developed countries are major contributors of CO₂ emission until the late period of the last century;after then,their CO₂ emissions peaked and declined.Developing countries become the main pressure for global CO₂ reduction.This study focuses on the 61 small developing countries with fast-growing（faster than the global average）CO₂ emission except for China and India from 2010 to 2017.Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI）and Structural Decomposition Analysis（SDA）are applied to analyze the driving forces of CO₂ emissions from perspectives of production and consumption.Since 2010,the small developing countries except China and India have surged CO₂ emissions,and will become the main contributor to the incremental global CO₂emission after China and India’s peaking.If the small developing countries’emission grows at the speed over 2010-2017,their emissions will overcover the emission reduction of developed countries.Over 2010-2017,countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia are the fastest-growing emitters,following by countries in Africa and Central Asia.Population,GDP per capita and CO₂ intensity of energy are three common positive driving forces from the production side.Besides,the share of secondary industry,the use of coal and oil are also emission drivers for countries with over doubled CO₂emissions within the period.The use of coal also drives emission of countries with faster CO₂ growth than GDP（except the“over doubled CO₂”countries）.While for countries with faster GDP growth than CO₂,the share of tertiary industry acts as the fourth driver.From the perspective of consumption,the drivers vary in three types of countries.For countries with over-doubled CO₂,the CO₂ intensity of output,the production structure,the exports,population,household consumption per capita,and other final demand drives emission.For the countries with faster CO₂ growth than GDP,the contributions of CO₂ intensity of output and the production structure are different as the energy structure,technology,and production structure change.For countries with faster GDP growth than CO₂,the production structure drives emission reduction,while the CO₂intensity of output and household consumption per capita drive emission growth.Small developing countries need to adjust energy structure and import advanced technology for better control of CO₂ emission while keep economic development.While the rest countries should continue reducing their emission,assist the small developing countries in climate adaptation,finance,and technology,as well as advocate low-carbon lifestyle to reach global climate mitigation.