Based On 4D Trajectory Prediction Of Airways Intersection Collision Risk Research

With the rapid development of civil aviation economy,the air traffic flow has increased sharply.However,China’s airspace resources are limited.In particular,at the intersection point of airways,convergence flight exists between aircraft,which greatly increases the collision risk between aircraft.In order to improve the ability of safe operation in airspace,this paper makes a systematic analysis and in.depth study on flight path prediction and aircraft collision risk.Trajectory Prediction is the basis of collision risk assessment.Accurate track prediction can effectively improve the ability of collision risk assessment.In terms of the theory of track prediction,the aircraft dynamics model is established according to the aircraft performance,the method of accurately calculating the distance between waypoints in the longitude coordinate is analyzed,and the wind speed information of the national wind field in recent ten years is analyzed and the wind field model is established according to the meteorological data of NCEP,so as to reduce the error of track prediction.A path prediction algorithm based on aviation intention is proposed.The influence of wind field data on aircraft motion state is considered,and the path prediction system is divided into nonlinear system and aircraft intention model.The nonlinear system captures the dynamic changes of the aircraft and collects the information that affects the motion state of the aircraft.The aircraft intention model measures the state of aircraft dynamics in the process of flight path calculation,and inputs it to the nonlinear system in series according to the information of trajectory change points,and finally gets the flight path output.The safety separation and collision risk level of aircraft are described,and a collision risk model suitable for crossing airways is designed according to the characteristics of airway intersection points.The shortcomings of traditional probabilistic algorithm of analytic geometry are analyzed,and an improved algorithm is proposed to transform the collision probability into the quadratic form of Gaussian random variable.The approach route of runway 02 L of Shuangliu Airport is simulated,and the traditional Paielli algorithm and Monte Carlo algorithm are used to verify the proposed algorithm,and its accuracy is proved.A collision risk assessment system based on four.dimensional track prediction is designed,which provides a preliminary design prototype for the completion of the system and shows the theoretical research results of this paper.The system is composed of login interface,parameter input interface,prediction result display interface and collision risk assessment interface.The system can be used as an auxiliary reference for relevant personnel to make decision and judgment of aircraft.