Research On Driving Factors And Convergence Mechanism Of China’s Carbon Productivity

Global warming caused by continuous greenhouse gas emissions will cause destructive risks to human society and ecosystems.At this stage,increasing efforts to control carbon emissions and resisting the catastrophic consequences of climate warming have become the consensus of human society.As the country with the largest carbon emissions in the world,China is obliged and necessary to accept the initiatives of international agreements,and strive to reduce carbon dioxide emissions while maintaining stable economic growth.Especially after the new "Climate Ambition Summit" made a solemn commitment to "strive to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060",China will face greater international pressure to reduce emissions.There is a long way to go.Therefore,the exploration and research on the coordinated development of China’s economic growth and carbon emission reduction targets is particularly necessary in theory and practice.In view of this,this article firstly uses the single-factor carbon productivity measurement method to calculate the carbon productivity of 42 sub-sectors in China from 2003 to 2017 and 30 provinces from 2000 to 2017,and analyzes the carbon productivity from the industry and inter-provincial levels.Evolution characteristics.The research results show that the carbon productivity of most industries and provinces in China shows a fluctuating upward trend within the sample time series,but there are obvious differences and imbalances in the growth of carbon productivity in various industries and provinces,and the gap tends to expand.Secondly,through the LMDI decomposition model,carbon productivity is decomposed into three driving factors: energy structure,capital substitution,and investment efficiency,and the contribution of each factor to changes in carbon productivity is analyzed at the industry and inter-provincial level.The research results show that the capital substitution factor is the most important driving factor for the overall carbon productivity growth of various industries and provinces in the sample time series.However,in recent years,due to the diminishing law of the marginal technology substitution rate,its contribution has a tendency to decline;energy structure factors are positive driving carbon productivity growth,the contribution to carbon productivity growth has increased significantly in recent years,but the stimulating effect on carbon productivity growth in most provinces is not obvious;investment efficiency factors have a negative effect on carbon productivity growth,but they have improved in recent years.Finally,based on the panel data model,this research empirically analyzes the convergence characteristics of carbon productivity in 42 sub-sectors in China from2003 to 2017 and 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017,as well as the driving factors and influencing mechanisms that affect convergence,and further divide the research objects analyze the industrial sector and the three major regions of the east,middle,and west.The research results show that the energy structure is the most important driving factor that promotes the convergence of the overall carbon productivity of the industry;capital substitution is the most important driving factor that promotes the convergence of the overall provincial carbon productivity;investment efficiency factors inhibit the convergence of carbon productivity.The mandatory energy intensity restriction policy introduced in 2006 has a significant negative impact on the convergence of carbon productivity in various provinces.The research results show that the industrial sector tends to converge at a faster rate than the industry as a whole,and the influence of the three driving factors is consistent with the industry as a whole;carbon productivity in the eastern region tends to converge at a faster rate than the provinces as a whole,and the central and western regions converge internally.Energy structure factors have led to the convergence of carbon productivity in the eastern region,but the driving effect on the central and western regions is not significant;capital substitution factors have significantly contributed to the convergence of carbon productivity in the three major regions,and is the most convergent in the eastern region.The main driving factor,investment efficiency,have a significant inhibitory effect on the convergence of carbon productivity in the three major regions.Based on the research conclusions of this article,the following policy recommendations can be put forward: first,formulate relevant low-carbon emission reduction policies based on local and industry conditions to ensure the enforceability,effectiveness,and coordination of the policies;second,optimize the traditional energy consumption structure,at the same time,increase the proportion of clean energy,improve energy utilization efficiency and technical level;third,improve investment efficiency and investment quality,optimize factor structure,and strengthen the substitution efficiency of capital factors for energy factors;fourth,actively adjust industry structure and expand high in addition to the scale of output value and the output value of low-energy-consumption industries,the traditional high-energy-consumption and low-output-value industries shall be rationally transformed.