Regional Difference And Driving Factors Of Carbon Emission Based On LMDI Decomposition Model

With the rapid development of the world economy,the demand for fossil fuels has gradually increased,the increase in fuel consumption led to the depletion of energy,and a series of problems such as global warming,environmental degradation and so on.The idea of developing low carbon economy has been put forward in the future to reach a consensus among different countries,which has been highly concerned by the government and experts and scholars.In a general way,the essence of low-carbon economy is to reduce the use of carbon trace energy through the development of advanced technology,so as to achieve the ultimate goal of reducing carbon emissions.China as the second largest economy in developing countries of the world,since 2007,the total amount of carbon emissions has been the first.Therefore,it is urgent to take effective measures to reduce carbon emissions and promote the strict implementation of emission reduction policies.The basis of effective policy is to identify and evaluate the main factors that drive the growth of carbon emission and the size of its function.But Chinese vast,various provinces and cities in the region between the geographical location,natural resources,traffic conditions,population distribution,urbanization,economic and technical level,and many other factors are different,so in the study of driving factors of carbon emissions in China,should study the sub region,it has important theoretical and practical significance to develop the various emission reduction policy according to local conditions.In this paper,firstly,the 30 provinces and cities in China are divided into four regions by two indicators of efficiency and emission using cluster analysis method.Through the calculation of Gini coefficient and range and standard deviation,quantitative analysis results showed that differences of carbon emissions in 30 provinces showing a growing convergence phenomenon from 2000 to 2014.Then using the Theil formula,the overall difference index is decomposed into differences index within and between groups of the region,estimates of carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emissions differences in the four major regional and the inter regional characteristics and trends.The results show that the intra regional index is smaller than the inter regional index,that is,the total gap of carbon emission is mainly from the difference between the four regions.Then,this paper uses the "three layer" analysis method expanding Kaya identities and constructs the logarithmic mean Divisia index model,sub regional,sub sector,sub stage of the decomposition of the driving factors of carbon emission,quantitative analysis of the influence of 11 driving factors of carbon emissions including the per capita GDP,energy intensity,population quantity,average transportation mileage,urbanization rate.The analysis results show that:at the present stage,the main positive driving factors of carbon emission have per capita GDP,the amount of vehicles,residents living level,total population,urbanization rate,energy consumption per kilometer,and its driving contribution rate is decreaseing successively;the average positive driving contribution rate of per capita GDP is as high as 42.3%,far higher than influences of other factors.The positive driving effect of urbanization rate shows a growth trend,but with the accelerated transfer of rural population to urban areas,the urbanization rate reached 50%in 2011,due to the guidance of national urbanization"tuminng volume for mass" and advocating low-carbon lives of urban residents,the positive driving effect of the urbanization rate decreased.The results of this study also pointed out that negative factors of the average driving effect of carbon emission growth have production and life sector energy intensity,average transport mileage,industrial structure and energy consumption structure.Among them,the energy intensity of the production sector is the main negative factor,whose average negative contribution rate is-20.63%,so reducing the energy intensity of carbon emissions is the primary task of realizing energy saving and emission reduction.Secondly,the negative driving effect of the transportation sector is only second to the energy intensity of the production department,and the negative contribution rate is-5.68%,which is also important to reduce the carbon emissions.In addition,with the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,the proportion of the second industry declined,and modern service industry developed,so that the driving performance on the carbon emissio of the industrial structure ns is negative.In addition,the higher carbon emission coefficient of coal,the proportion of electricity consumption has decreased,so that the contribution rate of energy consumption structure in the four regions are negative,and the effect is significant.Finally,according to the results of LMDI decomposition of carbon emission factors in different regions,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy to balance the dual goals of energy saving and emission reduction.