Research On The Effectiveness Evaluation And System Optimization Of China’s Carbon Pilot Market

The carbon emission trading system is an important market tool for the global response to climate change,and it has achieved obvious results.The Chinese government proposes to achieve carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060,and regards the carbon market as an important strategic choice to tackle climate change.With the establishment and launch of the national carbon market,the development of the carbon market has received widespread attention and has good development prospects,however,at the same time,it also faces some problems,such as low effectiveness,loose total quotas and lighter penalties.How to evaluate the effectiveness of the pilot carbon market,quantitatively measure and simulate the influencing factors of effectiveness,and then propose an optimization path,which not only have a direct impact on the effectiveness of the pilot carbon market,but also have a profound impact on the construction of the national carbon market.However,the relevant research on the effectiveness of the carbon market is still very weak.Based on a brief analysis of the characteristics of our country’s pilot carbon market policy and its trading status,this paper constructs an indicator system to measure the quarterly effectiveness of the pilot carbon market;.Then,it systematically analyzes the impact mechanism of the carbon market’s effectiveness and constructs a two-way fixed effect model for quantitative measurement factors affecting the effectiveness of the carbon market.Finally,by setting up single-factor and multi-factor scenarios,it simulated and analyzed the changes in effectiveness under different scenarios,and put forward suggestions for the optimization of the carbon market system.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)The results of the effectiveness of the pilot carbon market show that the average effectiveness of the seven pilot carbon markets in my country is 0.4545.Among them,the Hubei and Guangdong carbon markets are relatively more effective,with 0.6519 and 0.5712 respectively;followed by the Shenzhen,Beijing,and Shanghai carbon markets,with their respective effectiveness of 0.4851,0.4477,and 0.4364;Chongqing and Tianjin’s carbon markets are the lowest,respectively,with respective effectiveness It is 0.3350 and 0.2524.The peak effectiveness occurs in the second and third quarters of the year.(2)The quantitative measurement results of the factors affecting the effectiveness of the carbon market show that the supply status of the carbon market has a more obvious impact on the effectiveness of the carbon market than the demand status.From the perspective of supply,the total amount of allowances has a significant negative impact on the effectiveness of the carbon market;from the perspective of demand,the number of companies that control emissions,the intensity of punishment,and the coverage have a significant positive impact on the effectiveness of the carbon market.At the same time,the macroeconomic industrial structure has a significant impact on the effectiveness of the carbon market.(3)The simulation results of carbon market effectiveness under different scenarios show that as the carbon market policy system continues to tighten,the carbon market effectiveness will continue to improve,reaching an average of 0.684,an increase of 0.229 from 2014-2019.According to the significant degree of impact on effectiveness and the principle of the average change in the simulated scenario,an optimization path to increase the effectiveness of the carbon market is proposed.The top priority of system optimization is to strengthen punishment,gradually increase the number of companies that control emissions,and gradually increase coverage.Scope,reduce the total amount of quotas.Based on the above research conclusions,several countermeasures and suggestions for the optimization of the carbon market policy system are put forward: First,the pilot carbon market adopts a policy system tailored to local conditions.Formulate corresponding policies and systems according to the actual development of each region.The second is to improve the quota management system in the national carbon market.Gradually increase the coverage area while reducing the total quota and free quota allocation ratio.The third is to improve the regulatory system.Establish a special regulatory agency and improve the construction of the electronic platform.The fourth is to strengthen legal protection.The pilot carbon market further supplements corresponding local regulations in accordance with national laws.The fifth is to enrich trading products.Increase the types of trading products through the development of carbon futures,carbon forwards,carbon funds and other carbon derivatives.