Research On The Emission Reduction Effectiveness Of China's Pilot Carbon Market Policy

As the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter,China has been actively committed to greenhouse gas emission reduction.In 2011,the national development and Reform Commission announced that Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Chongqing,Shenzhen,Hubei and Guangdong will be the pilot countries to establish carbon emission trading mechanism in China,which is a major measure.7 pilot projects will be launched in 20132014.From the pilot carbon market to the national carbon market,China’s emissions trading mechanism construction took seven years.When the national carbon market is about to start formal trading and various basic settings are constantly improving,it is of great practical significance to evaluate the emission reduction effect of the pilot carbon market that has gone through 5-6 operation periods for the construction of the national carbon market.This paper is devoted to answering the core question of "whether China’s pilot carbon market has played an effective role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions",and selects the synthetic control method and the double difference method commonly used in the field of public policy evaluation as the empirical means of this paper for analysis.The data used are carbon dioxide emission data of 30 provincial capitals(except Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)in 2005-2017 and five economic indicators affecting carbon dioxide emission.In this paper,six pilot carbon markets in Hubei,Guangdong,Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin and Chongqing are taken as research objects,and Shenzhen is not in the scope of this study due to the lack of data.Specifically,this paper takes carbon dioxide emissions(CO2)of each province as the explanatory variable,pilot carbon market policy(CM)as the core explanatory variable,urbanization rate(urb),total population(pop),per capita GDP(pgdp)secondary production ratio(indus),coal consumption ratio(coal)as the control variables.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)As far as the empirical method is concerned,neither the double difference method nor the composite control method can independently complete the test of all the pilot projects.When the two methods are used independently,the two methods in Guangdong are applicable and the results of the two methods can be mutually corroborated;Hubei,Beijing,Shanghai and Tianjin can only use the double difference method;Chongqing can use the composite control method,such as further using the double difference method based on the results of the partial composite control method,and the results also confirm the results of using the composite control method alone.(2)In terms of the effectiveness of emission reduction,Beijing,Shanghai,Hubei and Chongqing are effective,while Guangdong is invalid,because the test results are not robust,Tianjin cannot be judged.Specifically,the implementation of carbon market policies in Beijing,Shanghai,Hubei and Chongqing has a significant inhibitory effect on local carbon dioxide emissions,and the implementation of these four pilot carbon markets has achieved environmental dividend;after the opening and operation of Guangdong carbon trading market,it has played a significant role in promoting local carbon dioxide emissions,and further research has found that the improvement of urbanization rate will It causes a significant increase in carbon dioxide emissions in Guangdong.In addition,Tianjin’s test results are not robust,because in the model with only "carbon market policy"as a variable,Tianjin’s carbon market shows that emission reduction is effective,but after further adding control variables and eliminating the influence of time and regional heterogeneity,the negative effect of Tianjin’s pilot carbon market policy on emission reduction is no longer significant,so there is not enough evidence to show that Tianjin’s dioxygen The reduction of carbon emission is caused by the implementation of the pilot carbon market,but this paper finds that the increase of urbanization rate and the proportion of coal consumption will lead to the increase of carbon dioxide emissions in Tianjin.(3)In terms of time effect,among the four effective emission reduction pilot projects,only Shanghai’s carbon market policy has time lag,while Beijing,Hubei and Chongqing have no time lag.Shanghai’s carbon market began to play a role in emission reduction only one year after the opening of the market,but from 2015 to 2017,not only the role of emission reduction has been enhanced,but also the effect of emission reduction has been greatly improved,from an average annual reduction of 11727.08 tons of carbon dioxide to 19983.25 tons.The carbon market policies of Hubei,Beijing and Chongqing have no time lag effect on carbon dioxide emission reduction,and have significant effect from the first year of market opening.Compared with Hubei and Chongqing,Beijing’s carbon market has better emission reduction effect in 2014,which may be due to the earlier opening time and longer operation time of Beijing.(4)In terms of emission reduction intermediary path of each pilot,Beijing and Hubei’s emission reduction intermediary path includes both reducing the total energy consumption and reducing the energy consumption intensity,and they are complementary intermediaries;Shanghai pilot carbon market is not reducing the total energy consumption to reduce emissions,the only way to reduce carbon consumption is to reduce the energy consumption intensity;Chongqing,on the contrary,the only way to reduce carbon consumption is to reduce the total energy consumption;for For Guangdong,both the total energy consumption and the intensity of energy consumption are not the intermediary of emission reduction.So this paper has the following suggestions for the development of China’s carbon market:(1)Beijing,Shanghai,Hubei and Chongqing should continue to deepen the pilot demonstration role by summing up the beneficial experience in the early stage.In the future operation of the four pilot projects,we should continue to strengthen mechanism innovation,improve legislation,give enterprises appropriate incentives to enter the market on the premise of ensuring the effective operation of the market,and promote the better development of the pilot carbon market.Secondly,we should actively participate in the construction of the national carbon market and actively carry out exchanges and cooperation with non pilot cities.(2)Guangdong pilot carbon market should ensure the stability and continuity of policies in the future.The stability of policy is one of the key factors for the smooth operation of the market.The management department of Guangdong carbon market should ensure the stability and continuity of policy promulgation and implementation,so as not to bring economic risks to all parties in the market.Stable,continuous and transparent policy measures are conducive to the correct economic decision-making of market subjects and reduce transaction costs.(3)Each pilot should reasonably arrange the implementation of carbon market policies and other energy conservation and emission reduction policies.Each pilot carbon market department shall ensure full understanding of market participants before formulating policies,make overall arrangements for the carbon market policies and other energy-saving policies in parallel.(4)Control and emission enterprises should actively enter the market to strengthen the awareness of Carbon Asset Management.Control and emission enterprises should be forward-looking for their own development,make full use of the carbon market mechanism to do a good job in carbon asset management,change the concept of development,and strive to grasp the initiative in the era of low-carbon economy.Enterprises with low emissions should actively participate in market transactions and make profits by taking advantage of their own advantages.