Economic Evaluation Of Zunyi Hengju Phosphogypsum Project Based On Monte Carlo Simulation Method

Phosphogypsum is a byproduct produced by human beings in the process of producing phosphate fertilizer.Because of the difficulty of treatment technology and high waste utilization cost,most of them become solid wastes,and are piled up in tailings pond or designated site for a long time.With the increasing number of phosphogypsum tailings year by year,it has caused environmental pollution in air,soil and water,and seriously affected human health.Although phosphogypsum is a kind of industrial solid waste,it can be used by human beings after treatment.The products are very common in many fields,such as in the construction process of construction projects and the production process of industrial materials.In addition,it can be seen in many gypsum building materials and cement products.At present,the utilization rate of phosphogypsum in China is very low,and the problems caused by phosphogypsum are increasingly serious,which has even restricted the sustainable development of phosphogypsum processing industry in China.As our country pays more and more attention to environmental protection,phosphogypsum has become a kind of industrial solid waste in urgent need of recovery and utilization in our country.Therefore,it is necessary to expand and optimize the comprehensive utilization methods of phosphogypsum resources to improve the comprehensive utilization of phosphogypsum resources.Phosphogypsum comprehensive utilization project has a large investment amount and a long period,which needs to be evaluated economically.The whole purpose of this paper is to seek a more scientific,effective and practical economic evaluation method for project decision-makers in the actual investment decision-making work of industrial solid waste comprehensive utilization project.This paper introduces the Monte Carlo simulation method into the economic evaluation of industrial solid waste comprehensive utilization project,and comprehensively analyzes the applicability of Monte Carlo simulation method from theory and practice.Specifically,this paper takes Zunyi Hengju phosphogypsum comprehensive utilization project as the research object.Firstly,based on the analysis of the development status of phosphogypsum comprehensive utilization industry,the development status and investment effect of Zunyi Hengju phosphogypsum comprehensive utilization project are fully studied.At the same time,the advantages of implementing this project in the regional market are also analyzed.Then,according to the economic evaluation methods and parameters of construction projects(the Third Edition),the relevant economic evaluation research is carried out.Secondly,according to the maximum utilization of the existing facilities of the 2000 t / d clinker new dry process cement production line of Zunyi Hengju Cement Co.,Ltd.,the comprehensive utilization production line of phosphogypsum is put into operation with the lowest investment.According to the requirements of investment estimation,the construction investment and working capital of Zunyi Hengju phosphogypsum comprehensive utilization project are estimated,At the same time,the total cost,sales revenue,taxes and profits in the process of project construction are comprehensively analyzed and studied.Then,according to the preset cash flow statement,combined with the norms and standards of financial analysis,the final profit level and profit and loss status of the project are evaluated.Finally,the project economic evaluation index is constructed by using the financial net present value,and the Monte Carlo simulation is carried out by loading the cylinder ball software by Excel.In practice,the whole process of constructing economic evaluation index is shown,and the economic evaluation of the project is carried out according to the results of Monte Carlo simulation analysis.This paper analyzes how to use the Monte Carlo simulation method to evaluate the economic benefits of the project with actual cases.The research results show that the Monte Carlo simulation method can better evaluate the economic benefits of the project and provide scientific basis for rational investment of the project.