| China’s modern coal chemical technology has achieved a comprehensive breakthrough,Chinese key technical level has occupied the world’s leading position,and coal-to-ethylene glycol has basically achieved industrialization.At present,the national spot price of ethylene glycol has dropped from about 7,600 yuan / ton at the end of July 2018 to about 4,500 yuan /each ton at the end of July 2019,causing losses to most coal(syngas)glycol companies.By 2020,China’s total ethylene glycol production capacity will reach 28.81 million tons per year,while the demand is only 20.5 million tons.Overcapacity is inevitable,and the price of ethylene glycol may linger for a long time.In view of this situation,it is important to conduct a more cautious and reliable income assessment of the investment in new coal-to-ethylene glycol projects.Based on the analysis of the development status of coal-to-ethylene glycol industry,the investment environment analysis,market analysis,current supply-demand structure,regional structure,and investment risk of coal-to-ethylene glycol projects were analyzed.Taking Jinhong Baisheng Coal Chemical Co.,Ltd.of Shangxi province as the research object,which produces 1.2 million tons each year coal-to-ethylene glycol.This paper based on the collected basic data collection and prediction,a financial evaluation of the project was carried out;Calculate the various benefit evaluation indicators of the investment project,and simulate the benefit evaluation indicators through the Monte Carlo method to verify the rationality of improving the WACC,and then make a comparative analysis of the two benefit evaluation results.Obtained research conclusions: The profitability,solvency and risk analysis of the project showed the feasibility of the investment project;the benefit evaluation index was simulated by the Monte Carlo method,which verified the rationality of improving the WACC;the evaluation methods of traditional methods have overestimated the expected benefits of coal-to-ethylene glycol investment projects to a certain extent,and the project benefit evaluation results based on improved WACC are closer to the real investment benefits of the project,and the evaluation results are more accurate and reliable.Finally,based on the content and results of the project benefit evaluation,a prospect is made for the benefit evaluation of the coal-to-ethylene glycol project.The benefit evaluation of coal-to-ethylene glycol investment projects can use more relevant models and technical means to improve the reliability,scientific and reasonable of the evaluation results. |
