Study On The Evolutionary Mechanism And Intervention Strategy Of Urban Public Health Emergencies Based On System Dynamics

In the context of globalization and urbanization,cities have irrefutably acted as creators of human disasters while creating economic miracles for mankind.With the continuous advancement of my country’s urbanization construction,the urban permanent population is increasing,environmental pollution,urban waterlogging,uneven spatial distribution,traffic congestion,emergencies and other "urban diseases" that affect the happiness and well-being of urban residents are gradually appearing.The outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 has once again sounded the alarm.Cities need to take a safe development path,scientifically respond to development risk issues,and comprehensively improve governance capabilities.How to seize the window of opportunity of "learning from history" and improve the ability to respond to such emergencies is a topic that urgently needs continuous exploration in the "post-epidemic era".At present,the research on emergency management of public health emergencies is mostly experience introduction and argumentative literature,and the suggestions for strategies and measures are mostly experience summaries,but they have not been analyzed in depth,although some programs are based on the implementation effects of intervention programs.On the basis of evaluation,there is still a lack of scientific evidence for prevention and control decision-making and management.It is necessary to start from the root,based on the scientific understanding of the underlying logic of the development and evolution of public health emergencies in cities,in order to better achieve the emergency management goal of "precise policy implementation".To this end,this article takes infectious disease public health emergencies as the research object,based on epidemiological characteristics and realistic impact,from the perspective of system evolution behavior,and uses complexity science,epidemiology,risk society amplification effects,and system dynamics.Based on related theoretical methods such as science,emergency management theory,etc.,it is hoped that through the study of the evolution mechanism of public health emergencies in the city,it is expected to contribute to the goal of "precise policy implementation".The research content of the full text can be summarized into three parts:(1)Analyze the evolution mechanism of public health emergencies.First,deconstruct the occurrence principle of public health emergencies,and based on the life cycle theory and risk society amplification analysis framework,after analyzing the influencing factors of event evolution,abstract the evolution path of public health emergencies in the city to form a theoretical model.Later,based on the basic principle of measurability,an indicator system was established to depict the causal circuit diagram of urban public health emergencies.(2)Construct a dynamic model of the evolution of urban public health emergencies.Following the problem-solving ideas of the system dynamics modeling method,combined with the theoretical model in Chapter 3,the model boundaries and overall assumptions are determined,the model variables are defined,and the SD model for the evolution of public health emergencies is constructed.Through the simulation of the model without intervention,five different trends of S-shaped finite,periodic,convex,oscillating and linear evolution of secondary events are obtained.Then according to the coupling phenomenon in the event evolution,the decoupling scenario is modeled and simulated.Comparing the simulation results before and after,summarized the dynamic law of the evolution of urban public health emergencies.(3)Effective intervention strategies for urban public health emergencies.Firstly,review the commonly used intervention measures in response to public health emergencies through literature review,modify and construct the evolution model of urban public health emergencies after intervention events are added.And by adjusting the parameters,mapping the different emergency prevention and control strategies in the real situation,analyzing based on the simulation results,and obtaining the regulation law.And take the actual data of China’s new crown epidemic as an example to verify the validity of the model.The research results of this paper have perfected the systematic research on the evolution of public health emergencies in theory,and in practice,it will help city managers to scientifically understand the public health emergencies of infectious diseases and optimize the direction for effective emergency management.And the choice of emergency strategy provides a certain reference.