Research On Emergency Response Plan Based On System Dynamic Model And Simulation

Along with the continuous progress of human civilization, accelerating the socialization process,the requirements of the human transformation of society also are increasingly strong, the same timethe emerged social problems also stand out. Public emergencies concentrated outbreak in recentyears given a heavy blow impact human beings with its enormous scale, enormous destructive andfar-reaching. At the same time to reflect on their own behavior, we have to increase investment inefforts to respond to public emergencies. Facilities from the hardware to software management, fromthe early warning mechanism to the restoration and reconstruction, in every task we must strive forscientific, rigorous. The losses of these disasters can be reduced to the lowest.Role in complexemergency response process, contingency plans play an extremely important role, can also say it isdecisive. For the study of the emergency plan, we think about the emergency plan system,preparation of contingency plans, these provide a valuable experience for the future to furtherimprove the emergency response plan. However, the actual response of the public emergencies,event specific development is often uncontrolled, this time, the the original contingency plansalready can not meet the development of the event, so it becomes our plan to adjust based on timelyfeedback must be solved.This study is the response to these problems, as the main research object to public emergenciescontingency plans on the basis of a detailed analysis of the management of public emergencies andcontingency plans, and system dynamics influencing factors of public emergencies contingencyplans system analysis, thereby establishing a dynamic model. This article consists of six parts:Part â… : Analyse the research status of public emergencies and contingency plans, to determinethe technical route of this article and leads to the purpose of this study.Part â…¡: Analyse the system dynamics theory and its development situation, identify the stepsand methods of system modeling.Part â…¢: Analyse the definition of public emergencies, on this basis, to expand its definition, forpublic emergencies characteristics, proposed classification criteria of this article.Part â…£: Systems thinking, the public emergencies contingency plans systemic principleanalysis, contingency plans model boundary setting process, interaction and causality analysis of theinfluencing factors of contingency plans for various events, thereby establishing the SD model. Part â…¤: Model simulation scenarios, simulation, and analysis of simulation results, and at thesame time make a corresponding adjustment measures.Part â…¥: Full Summary raised the lack of research and Prospects.