Spatial And Temporal Evolution Of Carbon Emissions In Cities Of Northeastern Provinces Under The Shrinkage Scenario And The Driving Factors

In the 21st century,China’s urbanization and industrialization have contributed to rapid economic development,but excessive dependence on energy and irrational use of energy have brought a series of ecological and environmental problems such as carbon emissions to some areas of China.Faced with the challenge of carbon emissions,China formally proposed the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" at the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2020.On the one hand,as China’s old industrial bases,the three northeastern provinces consume a large amount of fossil energy in the process of economic development,which has led to serious ecological and environmental problems such as carbon emissions.On the other hand,the three northeastern provinces are facing population loss mainly from highly qualified labor force,which makes them a typical urban shrinkage area.Population loss,economic recession,barriers to industrial upgrading,public service level and living environment in shrinking cities usually have an impact on carbon emissions.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to clarify the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of urban carbon emissions and their drivers in the shrinking context to revitalize the old industrial bases of Northeast China,achieve the double carbon goal and ensure the sustainable development of shrinking areas in Northeast China.This paper first accounts for carbon emissions（carbon emissions,carbon intensity,carbon emissions per unit area and carbon emissions per capita）of prefecture-level cities in three northeastern provinces based on the nighttime lighting index,and investigates the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of carbon emissions in shrinking areas of three northeastern provinces by combining geographic methods such as standard deviation ellipse,Moran index and hot spot analysis.Then,the main characteristic factors of shrinking cities in three northeastern provinces are quantified based on socio-economic and other data,and the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of population loss,economic development level,advanced industrial structure,public service level and improvement of living environment in shrinking cities in three northeastern provinces are analyzed.Finally,the driving factors of urban carbon emissions in shrinking cities in three northeastern provinces are analyzed from the perspectives of population,economy,industry,public service and living environment,respectively,combined with spatial econometric models.The main findings of this paper are as follows.（1）From the spatial and temporal evolution trends,the urban carbon emissions in the shrinking areas of the three northeastern provinces show a differential spatial and temporal evolution pattern.Among them,carbon emission（CE）,carbon emission per capita（CP）and carbon emission per unit area（CA）have the temporal evolution trend of increasing first and then decreasing,and carbon emission intensity（CD）is in the trend of gradually decreasing.the highest values of CE,CP and CA are all in 2010,with the average values of 337,200 tons,1172.01 tons per 10,000 people and 4311.19 tons per square kilometer,respectively.The highest value of CD was in 2005,with an average value of 454.08 tons/billion yuan.From the perspective of spatial evolution pattern,carbon emissions in the contracting areas of the three northeastern provinces mainly show the distribution characteristics of "northeast-southwest" direction,and the center of gravity of carbon emissions gradually moves from the southwest to the northeast.From the global perspective,the results of Moran index are significantly positive,indicating the positive spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions.From the local perspective,the hot spot area of CE is centered in Harbin,the hot spot area of CP is centered in Mudanjiang,and the hot spot areas of CD and CA are centered in Yichun,so it can be seen that the spatial shift of carbon emissions in the contracting areas of the three northeastern provinces is small,indicating that carbon emissions have more stable hot spot areas.（2）The temporal characteristics of the main characteristics of urban shrinkage in the three northeastern provinces are complex.Among them,population loss shows a temporal trend of "decreasing first and then increasing",and the inflection point of population loss is 2010.The economic level has a time change trend of "growth first and then decrease",and enters a negative growth stage after 2015.The advanced level of industrial structure has a temporal trend of "decreasing first and then increasing",indicating that the industrial structure in the contraction areas of the three northeastern provinces has experienced a regression and then gradually recovered and upgraded.The level of public services shows a temporal trend of continuous growth,and from 2005 to2018,the level of public services in the three northeastern provinces increased by about five times.The level of living environment shows a temporal trend of "growth followed by decrease",and the living environment in the contraction areas of the three northeastern provinces gradually tends to deteriorate.In terms of spatial distribution characteristics,the spatial distribution pattern of urban shrinkage factors in the shrinking areas of the three northeastern provinces is regionally heterogeneous.The main areas of population loss are located at the periphery of administrative regions,and the level of economic development in the shrinking areas of the three northeastern provinces is dispersed to the surrounding areas centered on large cities such as provincial capitals.The level of advanced industrial structure gradually decreases from north to south,with Heilongjiang Province being the highest,Jilin Province the second highest,and Liaoning Province the lowest.The level of urban public services is clustered and distributed,and cities with high level of public services tend to be more centrally distributed.The cities with better improvement of living environment are some larger cities such as provincial capitals,while the rest of smaller cities have worse living environment levels.（3）The drivers of urban carbon emissions under the shrinkage scenario in the three northeastern provinces are complex.Population loss has a catalytic effect on carbon emissions,which is mainly due to the loss of a large number of high-tech talents in the three northeastern provinces,and the loss of these people will inevitably reduce the positive externality impact of emission reduction technologies on the environment.The level of economic development has a positive inhibitory effect on carbon emissions,which indicates that the economic development of the three northeastern provinces has promoted the development of emission reduction technologies.Industrial upgrading has a suppressive effect on carbon emissions,which indicates that a reasonable industrial structure helps reduce carbon emissions.The improvement of public service level and living environment has a positive effect on carbon emissions,which indicates that the improvement of urban living standard also promotes the return and concentration of population,which accelerates energy consumption and thus promotes the growth of carbon emissions.