| Tourism ecological security is an important part of realizing the sustainable development of tourism.The tourism ecological security of the northeastern provinces is in the stage of destruction of ecosystem integrity,impact on the ecological service function of tourism ecosystem,crisis of tourism ecosystem security,and all kinds of problems has increasing day by day.Considering that the factors affecting the tourism ecological security of the northeastern provinces came from many subjects such as economy,society and nature,this paper made an in-depth analysis on the current situation of the northeastern provinces,established the tourism ecological security evaluation index system of the northeastern provinces based on the"DPSIR(Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response)"model,and made an in-depth analysis from multiple dimensions and perspectives such as economic activities,social life and natural ecological environment,it is of great significance to realize environmental protection and sustainable tourism development in the northeastern provinces.Based on this,taking 36 cities(prefectures and regions),3 provinces and the whole of the three provinces in Northeast China as the research area,the combined weight method,fuzzy matter-element closeness model,spatial autocorrelation model,GM(1,1)model,obstacle factor diagnosis model,GM-ES combined prediction model,classical panel and spatial panel measurement model are comprehensively used,with the help of SPSS 22.0,Arc Map 10.2,Geo Da 1.14 and other software.Based on the analysis of the evolution characteristics of tourism ecological security in the northeastern provinces from the perspective of temporal and spatial benefits,this paper deeply explored its influence mechanism and restrictive factors affecting its high-quality development.The research results showed that:(1)During the study period(2005-2019),the overallδT_ivalue of 36 cities(prefectures and regions),3 provinces and their overall tourism ecological security in the northeastern provinces showed an evolutionary trend of fluctuating growth.Taking 2010 and 2016 as the boundary,it can be divided into three development stages:gradually increasing from 2005 to2010,fluctuating from 2010 to 2014,and slightly decreasing from 2014 to 2019.The change rate ofδT_ivalue in cities(prefectures and regions)and provinces in the early stage of the study was greater than that in the later stage,the development trend in the later stage is better than that in the earlier stage.The mean value ofδT_iin Liaoning Province(0.4139)is significantly lower than that in Jilin Province(0.4257)and Heilongjiang Province(0.4248).The mean value ofδT_iin pressure subsystem has the highest among the five subsystems,but it was the only subsystem showing an obvious downward trend in the study period.With the passage of time,the overall spatial pattern has changed from"higher in the north,east and southeast coastal areas and lower in the central and western regions"in 2005 to"slightly higher in the northeast and slightly lower in the southwest"in 2019;(2)During the study period(2005-2019),the spatial pattern of tourism ecological security in 36 cities(prefectures and regions)in the northeastern provinces was relatively stable.The level of tourism ecological security among most cities was relatively close,with spatial dependence and positive correlation.However,nearly one third of the cities showed negative correlation during the study period,and there were significant differences in homogeneous and heterogeneous changes among cities.In the south of the northeastern provinces,the stability of tourism ecological security of cities in the middle east was slightly higher than that of cities in the west and north of the northeastern provinces;(3)The grey correlation value shows that the tourism ecological security of the northeastern provinces has comprehensively affected by environmental,social,economic and other factors.From the perspective of indicators,the impact of industrial sulfur dioxide emission,per capita consumption expenditure increment rate,tourism income growth rate and tourist growth rate on the tourism ecological security level of the northeastern provinces is more prominent,At the same time,the average value of grey correlation degree of index in pressure subsystem is the highest(0.9533);From the perspective of criterion layer,the grey correlation value of each subsystem is"R>P>D>S>I",in which the average value of grey correlation value of response system is the highest(0.2282),which has become the main influencing factor of tourism ecological security level in the northeastern provinces;(4)Through the diagnosis and analysis of obstacle factors,it was concluded that six factors such as urban daily water supply capacity,forest coverage,comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste,per capita park green space area,harmless treatment rate of domestic waste and centralized treatment rate of sewage treatment plant are the main obstacle factors affecting the improvement of tourism ecological security level in the northeastern provinces.During the study period(2005-2019),36 cities(prefectures and regions)in the northeastern provinces had obstacle factors,and 17 cities(prefectures and regions)had an average obstacle degree greater than 1%;(5)Based on the evolution law of European style closenessδT_ivalue of tourism ecological security in the northeastern provinces from 2005 to 2019,and taking the data from2005 to 2014 as the basic data to fit the evolution trend of the northeastern provinces from2015 to 2019,the prediction result and accuracy of GM-ES prediction model is the best.This model has used to predict the development trend of tourism ecological security in the northeastern provinces and three provinces from 2020 to 2024,although the development speed ofδT_ivalue will higher than that in 2005-2019.The overall situation of coordinated development has improved,but the overall evolution speed needs to be improved,and there will still a certain distance to achieve a high level and high quality of tourism ecological security.To sum up,the following optimization countermeasures and suggestions are put forward:first,the development of tourism industry in the northeastern provinces should be adjusted to local conditions;second,pay attention to the improvement of the resilience of the tourism ecosystem of the northeastern provinces;third,promote the implementation of government led tourism ecological environment governance and improvement;fourth,promote regional linkage among the northeastern provinces. |
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